Recap M INTC PUBM

11 9 23 RECAP

EH Video

HOWL

3 days up SAVA example

Consistency is KEY in trading

- People tend to forget that these gains didn’t just happen in a day. Sure, the profits were taken in a short period of time, however they were the result of a long process of education, trial and error, and even failure. 

- You must first learn consistency and give yourself the BEST shot at maintaining this career.

Here are some tips to improve your consistency:

1. Set Realistic Profit Goals

Saying that you want to make $200/day is more achievable than saying you want to make $100,000 from trading. This allows you to come to the market each day with a clear, realistic goal that will help guide you on your journey.

2. Don’t Take Unnecessary Risks

It only takes one trade to take you out of the game, and as we saw last week, no one is immune. Don’t try to nail that $10,000 trade if it exposes you to additional risk. Follow your trading rules and make sure you live to trade another day. Big profits will come with time – you shouldn’t be taking huge risks to chase them.

3. Appreciate Your Progress

Trading is great because it’s a constant challenge; you can always do better. That being said, this makes it so some traders are never happy because they always want more. Learn to appreciate your progress. If you are consistently profitable, you are doing better than 90% of traders and you need to recognize that. Try to understand the necessity of each step in the process of becoming a successful day trader. Even if you only make $50/day from trading, you are on the right path, as long as you remain consistent. Higher profits will come as you keep working at it.

4. Don’t Compare Yourself to Others

It’s easy to see traders making huge profits and wish you could achieve those same results. Suddenly, a $1000 gain may not be too exciting when you see someone else make $50,000 from a similar trade. DON’T COMPARE YOURSELF TO OTHERS. You don’t know their story. You don’t know how long they’ve been trading or how much capital they started with. Comparing yourself to others causes you to depreciate your own success and set unrealistic goals.

5. Understand Outliers and Take Breaks

If you have large profits or a big loss one day, sit back and take a break. You need to understand that these trades are outliers. Often times, traders experience the thrill of a big gain and come back to the market trying to recreate this success. This can be dangerous! This would be like winning the lottery and then going back the next day to load up on more tickets. Appreciate your win (or learn from your loss), and get back to trading consistently.

Looking for the "stormy weather" stocks.

 What do I mean by, "looking for the stormy weather?"  Quite simply, you can only make money on a stock if it is moving... or if it pays a dividend.   As a trader, you need a stock to be active.   You can't be trading stocks that are not moving.   Also, when you identify a stock that is moving, you don't know how long the move will last.  How many times have you bought a stock when it was really active, only to see it calm down and become "blue sky, sunny and no wind" or "dead."  As in dead money.  

So, the key is identifying a "stormy" stock.  Trade it.  Be out before the storm stops.   Move on to the next "storm."

That's the goal - each day. Trying to focus on quality and if they're working great but I don't want to exchange my time for hoping during the day. Either its working or I'm moving on.

Trade Rotation (float)

X - ATGL Short

 

Here is a trade I took on the short side.  This trade did not work out and I held on to it way too long.   I did not obey my $0.10 stop, which would have been $24.11.  

K - ATGL Trade

 

This was a trade I took based on my ATGL system.

1) Stochastic heading higher between 18-20.
2) Must close green (NOT solid) before buying (you can buy at end of day is likely 
to close green.
3) Set stop $.10 below the low of first green bar of buy signal.

VDSI still going

I was pleased with VDSI today as were many others in this stock who are long. As you know, I added this one to my 401(k) about a month ago. We can't expect VDSI to do this every day but lets hope it continues its upward movement. I am still long VDSI in my 401(k).

bad base

As mentioned earlier, I sold JSDA. Too many negative happenings. To name a few:

1. bearish candles (Bulls can't win lately)

2. OBV down

3. Support is being tested and broken.

4. MACD made lower highs on stocks new highs.

I don't feel comfortable being long on this one right now!

The base here seems a little loose as well. (Good bases normally fall 20% to 40% or 50% from their highs. Go any deeper and a stock faces even more steamed holders that have a loss. It's tough to overcome this "overhead supply" of potential sellers and hit new highs. this from IBD)

Institutions are the ones that support stocks in their bases. You want to hitch your wagon with them not the retail side.

Sold JSDA

I took JSDA out back to the woodshed today. The stock just doesn't seem to have any strength. The bears seems to get this stock every afternoon. My feeling is that the retail accounts are buying in the AM and the Institutions are selling during the day. Anyway, I am not going to wait around to see what happens. Sold at $13.67. Shit...

JSDA showing weakness

Well, JSDA has been a poor performer the last couple trading days. If the stock breaks below its prior resistance, we are going to have to jettison this puppy. To think this stock was gong to trend. Now looking back at the stock, it is too volatile to trend. There is too much emotion attached right now. Take a look at HMSY. This stock just moves along, nothing too fancy. Just slow and steady, the way I like it.

JSDA did offer some great opportunities to make some money. I was using the wrong approach though.

AM Notes

Yesterday VDSI was downgraded to Hold from Buy. The stock naturally traded lower. I have not touched this position and continue to hold my shares. I did not see shares pierce any key support areas on the chart. Lets assume the trend is still in place for now.

JSDA has held its ground. I still have my shares bought at $14.49.

AM Notes

The market seems to like the Feds action or inaction I should say. Investors are also bidding up the VASCO shares.

I bought JSDA the other day at $14.49. Funny thing, I don't know if you noticed but take a look at HMSY and JSDA charts and notice the same pattern in each. HMSY is going up now but Jones is down. The only thing I can think of is that the slope of the trend line for JSDA is steeper than HMSY. Maybe a little too steep. I am sure Cramer's comments did not help JSDA either but that can't hole too much weight. Anyway, I am holding onto JSDA.

VDSI / HMSY

I continue to hold VDSI in my 401(k). The stock look solid still. It is stabilizing after its last run up.

Another stock that looks interesting is HMSY. The stock, much like VDSI has been going through a basing pattern after its last move up. Today the stock moved higher. I do not own HMSY.

How Many Stocks to Watch?

• Pick only 1 or 2 issues to watch. You are more likely to do better by following a few stocks well than following a bunch of stocks poorly.
• Use both physical stops and limit orders to control risk.
• Successful swing trading requires little knowledge about the companies underlying fundamentals.

VDSI

Like I said, I sold VDSI in the trading account and held it in the 401(k). I bought VDSI during wide price bar action, which is risky. I should have waited for the stock to "cool" before purchasing.

Expansion - Contraction

• Price bars tend to expand during rallies and sell offs.
• Then congestion sets in.
• Volume drops and price bars narrow. (I know - the Empty Zone!)
• Then, pressure builds up and the price starts moving again. (Positive feedback)

Sold VDSI in Trading Account - holding in LT Account

I sold VDSI in my Trading account today at $14.10. However, I am still holding the issue in my 401 (k) account. Technically, this issue is not something you want to be holding long. I thought the stock may find support around its 13 day MA but no such luck. I am guessing the stock will bounce around $13.50 to $14.75. I think the market is now waiting for the Jan. 31st conference call.

Trend/Range

• Positive feedback tends to surge in waves.
• Negative feedback allows the trader to enter a low risk position.
• Enter positions when the range nears primary S/R and watch for momentum in the next lower time frame to carry the trade to a profit.

Bollinger Bands

A good tool to measure central tendency of price.

• Enter fade positions when price hits the top or bottom band.
• Look for bands to tighten around dull markets.
• Consider shorting when the price pops more than 50% out of the top band and go long if this occurs on the bottom band.
• Odds favor price falling all the way to the bottom band when the central pivot breaks.

Moving Average Ribbons (MARs)

Expect choppy price action during phases when the averages criss-cross out of sequence. Price can bounce around like a pinball several times before breaking free when it gets caught between inverting averages.

MARs allow quick examination to locate classic retracement levels to use for entries on the next pullback.

3D Charting

I am most comfortable operating as a position trader. That being said, if I were to develop a 3D system, I would look at the 60-minute/daily/weekly charts.

Also:

• Logarithmic vs. Linear Charts: Use logarithmic for low price or volatile stocks. Use linear for higher-priced or slower moving stocks.
• Always look at the price bars first. Use the "lower pane" indicators to support what you see in the chart. Not the other way around.

Cross-Verification

Focus trade preparation on cross-verification to locate promising setups and measure risk:reward. Basically from what I can gather, is that cross-verification is an area on a chart where there are multiple trade signals at a certain price. This price is low risk entry point. They key is to uncover this area and execute a trade.

• Look for price close to substantial support to identify low-risk long trades.
• Look for price close to substantial resistance to find low-risk short sales.
• Measure profit targets (PT) and failure targets (FT).

Support & Resistance

• Look for price to fail the first test of any significant high or low horizontal level. But expect a successful violation on the next try.
• Rising or falling moving averages routinely mark significant boundaries.
• Trend line and channel breaks signal the end of a prior trend and the beginning of a sideways phase.
• Use central tendency to uncover ripe trading conditions but then shift to other indicators to identify low-risk entry levels and proper timing.
• Try using Fibonacci to see how far a rally or decline will likely pull back before reversing.
• Corrections routinely retrace at least 1/3 to 1/2 before support begins a new rally phase. Many trends pull back 2/3 before changing direction.
• Round numbers affect trends. 10,20,25,30,35,100,10000.

Entry

From Alan Farley

• Classic swing traders work best during negative feedback.
• Enter positions at low risk and exit them at high risk.
• These areas often mean buying support and selling resistance.

frozen

I am really curious about what happened on Friday concerning VDSI's drop in price. I could not find any news to base the drop on. Message boards were useless, as usual. My initial thought was that it will come back in the afternoon. Then I thought, I will sell now and buy back cheaper. However, anytime I tried doing that in the past the stock would bounce up after I sold. So, with no real evidence about anything, I am holding on. I know this does not sound like a good game plan but I hate churning a portfolio. I am watching it closely though.

oh nelly

What happened to VDSI this AM? What was it? Some type of gunning exercise or something? I am sitting tight. I don't know if that is the right thing to do but I want to see what happens in the afternoon.

You can't rest in any market

Well, today more news comes out that shakes the market. One day everything is good. The next day, it is time worry about something else. Get used to it if you plan to stay in this business.

Anyway, I was looking at a few interesting stocks tonight. I found: ROCM, JSDA, CTEC.

Otherwise, I have not made any new buys or sells. I continue holding VDSI.

Trend Relativity

• The most profitable positions will align to support-resistance on the chart above the trade and display low-risk entry points on the chart below.
• The perfect set-up rarely exists.
• Many traders make the mistake of seeing their trade in one time frame and executing in another.
• Decide how many bars must pass before a trade will be abandoned regardless of gain or loss.

Time

I remember when I read Alex Elder's books and he introduced me to the Triple-Screen system. Well, Alan Farley explains the same idea.

• First, choose a primary screen that reflects the holding period and matching strategy.
• Second, study the chart one time frame above your primary screen. This chart should identify support/resistance and other landscape features.
• Third, shift down one time frame and look for a low risk entry point.

Some traders, sit on nonperforming positions for weeks and tie up important capital while other opportunities pass them by.

Here is an interesting concept about time. Use both price and time triggers for stop loss management. Time should activate exits on nonperforming trades even when price stops have not been hit.

Alan Farley - Swing vs. Momentum

• Price seeks equilibrium.
• Swing trades that execute right near support or resistance offer good opportunities. At its core, the narrow swing tactic buys at support and sells at resistance through congested markets. It fades the short-term direction as it predicts that a barrier (resistance/support) will hold and reverse price.

Alan Farley - Trend Range Axis

Alan talks about trend range axis. Also, I think Alan has some good things to say but his language is very difficult to understand sometimes. He tries to make ideas sound more difficult than need be. Once you get used to the way he expresses himself, the information he provides is good.

Stocks are either trending or trading within a range. Alan refers to this as positive (trending) or negative feedback (range bound).

Basically, you have these cycles where there are periods of quiet low volume trading where price absorbs volatility. Once that has happened, another leg of activity erupts.

Alan says, when breakouts erupt, follow the instincts of the momentum player. Buy high and sell higher. However, when volume drops and price bars narrow, use price boundaries (ranges) to fade the short-term direction.

Some Ideas

During my evening scan, I notice a couple interesting ideas. I am looking into ANGN,SIMO, WIT and PSO.

I was surprised to see VDSI move up as much as it did. I actually do not prefer frenzied action on the tape. Too risky and too much emotion. As long as the institutions are Bullish, we should see an upward bias. Try not to get shaken out by the volatility if you can help it.

VDSI - Still holding

Still holding onto VDSI. Obviously, stocks are going to go up and down. It is important to realize thet there is an upward bias now for VDSI. There is still buying pressure, which is what we like to see. So, hold tight and lets keep our eye on the trend!

Alan Farley - Pattern Cycles

I have been looking at Alan Farley's Book, The Master Swing Trader, and trying to glean some information about trading (successfully!). Anyway, Alan starts out by explaining pattern cycles.

• Pattern Cycles recognize that markets travel through repeated bull and bear conditions in all time frames.
  
• As ranges contract, so does volatility. Like a coiled spring, markets approach neutral points from which momentum reawakens to trigger directional price movement. This area between the end of an inactive period and the start of a new surge marks a high-reward empty zone (EZ) for those who can find it.
  
• Price bar range (distance between high and low) tends to narrow as markets approach stability.
  
• Once located, Place an execution order on both sides of of the EZ and enter a position in whatever direction the market breaks out.
  

Sounds pretty easy but there has to be more to this than meets the eye. I can't wait to find out! I just look at a bunch of charts and the EZ in not easy to see. It rarely will jump out at you. What I did notice is that you do see waves of motion in prices. The waves in a strong trend seem to offer the best opportunity. Look at the charts below. I picked the out of the S&P 500. The first few I looked at.

The Discipline Trader - more notes

I have been reading more of The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. I like the book. I think people who want to become better in the Markets think that there is a magic formula. This book addresses that "touchy feely" side of trading. I think most people can understand the "rules" of trading. Few people can manage their emotions though when they are in the Market. So here are a few more ideas from the book.

• Prices will go in the direction of the greatest force. (Elder's Force Index could be useful to gauge the strength.)
• If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade.
• Get over the notion that each trade has the potential to fulfill all your dreams.
• Once you put on a trade, you have to actively participate to end your losses.
• You have to learn how to read the market. It will tell you what to do.
• In an unstructured and unlimited environment, it is essential that you establish rules to guide your behavior.

Evening Notes

The Market was up but the stocks I was looking at all finished down. I think it may have been benign profit taking. I mean, VDSI has been moving up fast and can't sustain that movement without some retreat.

I bought some more VDSI for my 401(k). I paid 15.49.

I did a little work after the Market closed but I did not see anything too interesting. I will do some more work this weekend.

Evening Notes

Today was another good day on the Street. I have been looking at a few ideas: ccoi,vocs,hmsy,mend,sncr,nite,smod,meh. In particular, hmsy is looking very interesting!

I am still holding VDSI. Today's action on VDSI looked good. The bulls won today and the volume looked nice. So, lets sit tight for now.

The Exhaustion Gap ---------

• These gaps can be confused as a Runaway Gap.
• Look for high volume.
• These gaps are quickly filled.
• A big clue is a gravestone doji candle or something resembling that idea where the Bulls could not close the stock on the high side of the daily range.

The Runaway Gap ----

So far we have dicussed the common gap and breakaway gap. Lets talk about the Runaway Gap!

• The main difference between a Breakaway and a Runaway is that the Breakaway happens after a consolidation or established trading range. The Runaway happens during an upward trend.


• Look for significant volume during and after the Runaway gap.


• The term Measuring Gap is also used to describe the Runaway Gap. The idea that the Measuring Gap will occur at the mid-point of the move.

Still going

VDSI is still moving north from the Breakaway Gap we saw a few trading day back. You have to remind yourself that this is not your answer to your dreams. Stocks don't go north forever. So, keep an eye on it and get ready to leave the game and start a new one. It is up to you to decide when the "game" is over.

The Breakaway Gap - fun and exciting!!!!!

VDSI - now that looks like a Breakaway Gap.

• The price is breaking out of their trading range or congestion area. (different from Runaway Gap, which we will discuss later)
• Volume will pick up, not only for the long buys but also the shorts covering their positions.
• The volume should occur when the gap appears, not before, to ensure a chance of further advancement.
• The gap is now the new line of support for long breakouts and resistance for shorts.
• Don't wait for the gap to be filled to put on your position. You could miss a good upside move in this situation.

more gap analysis, the common gap

Yesterday, I started talking about gaps. There are four kinds of gaps out there. Lets go over the common gap aka: trading gap or area gap.

• The common gap is usually uneventful. A stock going ex-dividend could cause this. These types of gaps are "common" and will fill quickly.



• What does filled mean? The price, after the gap event, will go below the area of the gap.

• These gaps also show avg or low volume.
• These gaps are good but don't expect great trading opportunities to come from them.

interesting stock ideas

I looked at a few stocks after the markets closed. These look interesting for long positions. AOB,HLTH,HMSY,MENT,VDSI.

the gap with VDSI

VDSI was down today $.34. I am not surprised due to the big run-up this thing has had. There was a gap yesterday that did not get filled today. Lets talk a little about gaps.

1. It is always Bullish when a stock gaps higher.
2. After the up gap, many traders want to sell and take profits.
3. A new high after a round of profit taking, indicates that buyers are not waiting for a pull back to get in.
4. If the price falls below the gap, be patient (don't buy the gap).

Today's Opening Notes

random readings:

• Stick to the best stocks, while looking for optimal buy points to start to a position or add to one. Avoid buying laggards that are late to the party.
• oil prices slipped again. February crude dipped 22 cents to $56.09 a barrel, reversing after early gains. Warm winter weather in the Northeast and ample supply have fueled a drop of nearly 9% in oil prices over the past week. Energy stocks, which led the market in the first half of 2006, have mostly fizzled since then, with oil prices about 40% off summer's peak levels.

The Disciplined Trader (TDT)

I started reading The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. Here are some interesting notes that I took:

• Traders that have been successful state that they did not become that way until they learned self-discipline, emotional control, and the ability to change their minds to flow with the markets.
• Don't expect to become a successful trader if you have limited capital or if you are trading with money you can't lose.
• Don't be affected by the "big trade" mentality. (take small wins)
• None of us has the mental capacity to be aware of everything going on in the environment at once.
• The more I followed my rules the more I trusted myself.
• It is critical to have an organized, systematic, step by step approach to learn the mental skills necessary to accumulate wealth as a trader.
• Trading systems limit the scope of market behavior, and therefore make this activity a little easier for our minds to manage.
• The trading arena is never ending, that begins only when one decides to participate, that ends only when one has had enough.

INTC sold at $21.11

I sold INTC today at $21.11. This stock could be dead money for a while. I thought this stock was poised to a good move but I have held it for a while and it does not know which direction to go in. I got out with a small profit. Lets wait for a trend to start and revisit.

VDSI bot at 13.92

I bought some VDSI today at $13.92. Here is a great example stocks moving on emotion. Lets face it, all stocks do.

So, my stop is around $13.64. Again, volume will be important to keep this sucker moving upward.

VDSI

It will be interesting to see what VDSI does tomorrow. Technically, this stock has a lot going for it. I would think there would be a little pullback so that some us can get in and ride this one. What really catches my eye is the larger volume in the past couple trading days. Also, the stock has been closing at or near its daily high.

not much of anything

The stocks I mentioned today did not do a whole lot. OK with me, it is nice to document your thoughts and see the outcome. I have a friend who comes up with all these different ideas. The ideas are somewhat obvious and good because the Market is on to them already. Once the trend changes and goes south, I ask my friend how he did. The usual response is, "Oh I got out of that a week ago..." This kid should have worked for Soros. Anyway, my point is, if you do not document your thought and actions in the Market you will only remember the winning ideas and think you can do no wrong.

I picked up The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas to read. I will let you know how it reads. It has been recommended on some websites; I can't wait to start reading.

Telecom

We all know that Telecom has done great during the last half of 2006. I was looking at a few charts last night and these stocks like pretty interesting still. KPN and TEO have great looking charts and solid trends in place.

Intel ? Crazy now.

I picked up some Intel about two months ago based on the facts that it was in the middle of a upward trend. The stock ended up going down somewhat but today she popped up a little. Over the weekend one reporter said maybe INTC is the dark horse for 2007. It did nothing in 2006 and has only upside potential. We have heard that before. Anyway, still holding on...

real estate distractions

I have been doing my real job lately, which is real estate in Boston. I have been flat out and have not been able to really follow the markets closely (unfortunately). I hope to get back to it soon.

I am still holding AMAT. You know, the semiconductor cap stocks are very volatile. I don't want to be shaken out of the stock too soon.

COVERED BA - SOLD AA - BOT AMAT

Yesterday I did a lot of activity. I covered my BA at $69.60. I sold AA at $29.33. I bought AMAT at $20.49.

BA - was not acting like a short anymore.
AA - I got in on the early sell-off but there is now negative sentement attached to this stock, too much uncertainty.
AMAT - Exploded with volume and price. Will the cycle start already. If it does I don't want to be left behind. I have been faked out before but I am not giving up!!!

BA and AA

BA had an up day. I am not surprised, the 50 day EMA is a pretty strong resistence line. I still have BA open.

AA did come off its AM lows. I bought early and decided to hold for now.

AA update

After writing my thoughts down this AM I realized that this blip in AA's earnings was not commodity based and that the company can turn things around. I felt the sell off was fear based. I did buy AA at $28.46.

AA missed earnings , 11000K - wow!

We all know that AA missed earnings yesterday. Instinctively I thought about shorting the stock. After reading the news I am leery about that idea. If aluminum prices were going down then I would be more likely to short. However, this is company specific. Too much uncertainty here. The stock will probably go sideways or back up again. Anyway, I do not have enough conviction to do anything now.

BA had another down day. I am holding my short position on this one still. Yesterday the stock closed below the 50 day EMA, a major support area.

Semiconductors have been moving up at a pretty fast clip. I am sniffing around AMAT. I have been burned on this industry in the last couple years. The cycle is not as well defined as it has been in the past.

CAT continued it run. Lets continue watching for any weakness.

BA

Last week BA bounced on its 50 day EMA. This week it will be key to see if the stock breaks below its 50 day EMA and even the $68 mark, which holds major support.

I am not holding any other positions now.

"because thats where the money was..."

I was thinking the other day about Willie Sutton, who started robbing banks in the late 1920s. You know who he is. Known for his famous quote about why he robbed banks - "because that's where the money is."

He is also know for another nice quote, "You can't rob a bank on charm and personality."

Now you are asking, how does this relate to speculating? Well, I was kicking the idea around that what I do and what Willie does is kind of the same. Someone asks me, "why did you pick that stock?" The answer - "because it is going up." Hey, if I make money on it, who cares why it is going up. The stock itself may not know why it is going up until later. If you wait to find all the answers you are too late. By that time, the stock will be about ready to roll over and head south.

KISS - you know what it means

• You buy a stock expecting it to go up or down.
• Keep in mind, as a "trend follower," you will not catch the very beginning or end of the trend.
• Again, you buy.
• After 4 or 5 days the stock does not move up.
• What should you do?

Well, remember, you are a trend follower. Are you in a trend? Does not sound like it if the stock has not moved up. I have gotten killed because I bought and the trend did not materialize or continue. After 4 or 5 days you should know if you are right or wrong. Answer: I would sell.

Cat too?

Well, it is no secret. Techs are doing great, particularly the semiconductor stocks. Conglomerates are weak for two days in a row now. caterpillar is also showing some weakness. This stock cannot move past the $60 mark. Today is showed some real lack of conviction. The Bulls may be giving up on this one too! Now I am not shorting this one but my feeling is that CAT will start moving down if it can't make a strong move above $60 in the next couple trading sessions.

BA came back a little this afternoon but ended lower for the day. This stock should bleed for a while longer!

Short BA

Okay, BA has been humming, cooking, blazing, etc. - BOA came out with a downgrade today to Neutral. I don't really follow these upgrade/downgrades, but if you have a company trading near a 52 week high and you start getting negative vibes, maybe it is a good idea to take some action. This could be an inflection point on the chart of BA.

So I shorted BA at $69.86.

Don't be Fooled

Today turned out to be pretty good in the end. I was just looking over some charts and many stocks bounced back this afternoon. My feeling is that investors were buying across the board. Tomorrow will be a key day for us to see if there is any follow through.

and they're off!

The New Year is fresh with prognosticators telling us what is going to happen. Lucky for them few of them put their money where their mouth is (or pen). It is easy for a reporter to give us some prediction about what may happen this year. We can all make predictions. We can all make guesses.

We make our money by not listening to the papers or news. We make our money by listening to the Market.

Happy New Year! 2006!

I am looking forward to a challenging and exciting investing experience this 2006! My New Years Resolution to you is to make sure that I stay on top of my game and give you some good investing ideas for 2006. Remember, I am starting out with $50K. I already made one losing decision by buying CAG and selling at a small loss. I am out of that and have no holdings now. We are going to have other losers in 2006 I am sure! The important concept is to make sure that our losers are small and our winners our huge!

So, to you and yours - Happy New Year! Lets make some $$$$$$$ !!!!!!

Jeff

Last Day of Trading for 2005!

DOW 30

So today was the last trading day of 2005! I was pretty much removed from the market today. I was over at Wal Mart buy some tee shirts for 2006! I noticed a few things today.

AIG - hit resistance at $69
CAT - hit resistance at $60
GM - Bouncing off support at $18. I would not feel comfortable owning thing one. I know there are too many problems. Will be very erratic!
JNJ - hit support at $60.
KO - I actually sold this a couple weeks back. I had a few shares from a gift a long time ago (like 13 years). Anyway, the 1980's and 1990's. KO is facing great competition and their management is weak. Lets move the money into something with better chances.
BANKS - JPM and C - hit resistance too.

Misc.
RTN - Hitting new area highs. Keep an eye on this one. Lets look for any signals of a short play.

My Xmas Present - Siri

I received Sirius Radio for Xmas! It is a gift that I would have not bought myself but I really am enjoying it! Great selection of music and no annoying ads! It makes listening to the "radio" enjoyable.

I like it so much that I was tempted to buy the stock. Remember one of those axioms, " it may be a good company but not a good stock." Something like that. Looking at the chart I see that $8 mark is pretty meaningful. If the stock moves above that mark with some power, it may be worth buying into. Otherwise, it could flounder a bit.

Slow Days

So, I did sell CAG yesterday. I really did not have a choice. The market is waiting for more info about how CAG is going to turn things around. I had no choice.

I am keeping my eye on a few stocks though - HNZ, CMCSA, RSH. These stocks look interesting in that something could change and a true could start.

as of 12/27/2005

CAG

AM

Okay, I am getting concerned with CAG. If there is more weakness in the stock today I will have to sell. The idea is to protect your capital and let profits ride. My feeling is that there may be too much uncertainty in the stock now. The market was hoping for more from the CEO last week and they did not get what they wanted. March is when more detailed info will come out. This could be a problem!

UPDATE
CAG was sold today at $20.26. I would rather step aside and wait for the CEO to get a plan together and join in when the others do. The market was expecting more than they got from the new vision.

Note: Bought at $20.89.

Merry Christmas from me and one of Santa's Helpers at Public Co$ !

Slow day CAG is held

A slow day, I am sure most of the heavy hitters packed it up and went home until 2006. I am still holding CAG even though it dropped below my stop target. First, with such light trading I did not think this was a great day to sell. Also, this stock had major support at the $20.30 mark.

As time moves ahead and this stock is still sluggish, I won't waste any time selling it. I must say that I was expecting a pop in the stock that has not occurred.

Hard Day for CAG

CAG had its analysts quarterly earnings report today. There was a sell off but the stock is still being held. If the stock goes below $20.47, then I will sell.

WFR - oh that hurts - like CAG

Did you see MEMC today, up $1 on the open! Yesterday I sold the sucker. You really have respect the markets. It can drive you crazy if you let it. Remember, this is a huge learning process and admission is expensive!

I bought CAG today at $20.89. Please see my trade portfolio for all my action. I am starting my 2006 concept before the New Year! Money never sleeps.

Oops on WFR

I sold WFR this AM. You know, that really irked me. I went into MCD and made a pretty good trade. I knew what I was doing and liked the set up on MCD. Made some money and then went into WFR. I did think the stock could shoot up but I think was really rolling the dice. I sold at a loss and I feel stupid that I rolled the dice like a fool. No excuses...

TRADES FOR 2006

as of 12/23/2005

I keep forgetting

Who said investing was easy. Right when you think you are learning, you start forgetting. In search of the Holy Grail, as some would call it, you forget what "works." Now, what "works" for me is different than what "works" for you.

Remember -
1) Be Patient
2) Don't Get Fancy
3) There is no such thing as a perfect trade or investment (you make money or lose money)
4) Keep an open mind

Right now, I do not have any trade ideas. I have my eyes open.

UTX IS STALLING

Looking at todays close of UTX does not make me bullish. Is it time for UTX to rest after its huge run up? The odds say YES!

I thought so - DPZ has a large stone tied to it.

Just for S and Gs I went to an Insider Trading website to see if Dominos was was being dumped by the VCs. Take a look for yourself. I would wait until you see DPZ trade over $25 for a few days before buying. There is a lot of overhead supply and I am not privy to Bain's trading book so I don't know what their plans are. You may want to stay the hell away for a while.

Flat for the day

I guess many are waiting for the Fed to meet and do what they are expected to do. MEMC moved up a bit today. I am still long that one.

In other ratings moves, Morgan Stanley upgraded United Technologies (UTX) to overweight from equal-weight, as the broker believes the company isn't getting enough attention for its aerospace upcycle. United Technologies was higher by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $55.55. OK, I don't understand this comment - I mean take a look at the chart of UTX. The stock has moved from about $50 to $56. The stock seemed to getting attention to me. The stock did move through major resistance and continues to move up.

A Tough Week!

"We're going nowhere fast because we don't have a lot of meaningful news," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "We've been left to trade on interest rates and crude oil, both of which have been very volatile."

Traders are now looking ahead to Tuesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to bump up fed funds by another quarter-point to 4.25%.

My Thoughts

I have to agree. I bought some MEMC (WFR) at $24.15 and saw the stock head south pretty fast after that! I still own it though. The word is that demand for the chips is here. However, there is a silicon shortage, which MEMC can produce. So the stock should go up. See chart here. I feel the buyers are still around for this stock. This past week was pretty volitile but I feel that was due to Intel coming out with news and the market unsure of what to expect. If there is weakness in the coming week, MEMC could be done for a while. Time will tell.

I bought some MCD last week at $34.14 and sold at $34.99. MCD is have a hard time getting past the $35 mark. I like their Chipolte IPO but I don't want to hang around just for that. I am waiting to see if this stock can trade over the $35 area on good volume.

The New Format Is Here In 2006

For those of you who read my blog, I thank you and hope I might have a couple interesting things for you to read. Also, for the year of 2006, I am going to keep track of a portfolio that starts with $50K. I am not saying whether the money is real or fake, I will let you decide. I will also disclose all my "moves" and let you see my performance and diary notes on a timely basis. I can't wait to begin!!!

Price Resistance -

Looking at a few charts and it is quick noticable how stocks will hit resistance at round numbers. For example:

Dominos = $25 - I think it is Bain Capital selling at that level.
AIG - $70
AXP - $53
BA - $70
CAT - $60
C - $50
GE - $37
HPQ - $30
IBM - $90

Anyway, I think you get the point. I never realized that these price points were so strong. Something to think about when you are about to buy or sell.

the Semiconductors

Much has been said about the semiconductor and the shortage in silicon for the wafers, I guess we are waiting for Intel to come out and give us some news today. I am waiting for the semiconductor stocks to take off and not look back. I remember when the cycle were so crisp and clean that you could just buy and hold until the cycle was over. Now, there are a lot of false starts it seems.

Remember: Bulls live above the 200-day moving average while bears live below it.

Cramer and the financials aka banks

Last night I started to watch Mad Money and Cramer started out with a lecture on buying the financials or buying one good one. I had to shut off the TV because I have been watching the financials (JPM and C) go up for the last couple weeks! Come on Cramer! We knew about this a month ago!

Anywho, Cramer has to do a TV show and talk about something.

Also, only 15-20% of stock actually will trend. Something to think about when you are holding onto that stock that you hope will go to the moon. Should you sell?

Flying at 30,000 feet

It is hard trying to figure out what is happening with a market or stock - I think. One thing that I find helpful is not getting to caught up in the moment. You really have to balance the big picture with the small picture. I think it is helpful to remind yourself to step back to a different focal point.

Musings, ramblings and thoughts...

I was thinking yesterday about the effects of speculating on the human mind. Speculating can take an emotional toll on the human due to the fact that the human can go back at a point in time to see how they would have performed if they had only held on to their stock. They make a decision to never let that happen again. So, they hold on to too long and get killed the next time. The idea is simple. Take money out of the markets. Let your winners fly and kill your losers - fast. This is a messy business and if you are concerned that your accountant will wonder why all the trades then you are doing it for the wrong reasons.

BA

BA, I thought was a good short idea but as time moves forward, I am not too sure. In other words, I don't know. I think that is a good reason to step aside and wait until the picture is more clear.

BA continued down. Maybe the picture is more clear. INTC is moving up still, although just by a small amount.

MSFT

So MSFT may buy some of AOL. I can't say that I am surprised at the idea since the stock has been moving up a few weeks prior. I was actually thinking that there was something going on - I did not know what though.

INTC looks nice now too. Are they making a deal with AAPL? What is the chart saying?

shift?

Today was a hard day in the market. There are some trends that I was looking at that have "blipped." Specifically, I am talking about WMT and HPQ. Tomorrow will be an interesting day. I would expect the market to be up but if not, the market is very concerned with the consumer confidence index and the employment rate issues. I think much of HPQ's loss today was due to Lexmark's poor performance. My gut feel is that HPQ is taking business from Lexmark and HPQ will continue its turnaround. I will let the market decide that though.

Volume

You know, I was thinking how these books on trading tell you how to look for big volume as a signal to buy or sell. I agree with them but I do not think it is that easy. Look, these institutions are smart. They don't want to put up a big flag and say, "hey look, we are buying (or selling)." No, they want to be quiet. So, don't think that volume is a big telltale sign. You have to focus on price and the close on the day.

This is fun! New Title!

Speculate : to assume a business risk in hope of gain; especially : to buy or sell in expectation of profiting from market fluctuations.

You may have noticed that I changed the title name of my blog. I must admit that it took me many years to accept the word "speculate" into my realm of thinking. I was bought up to "invest!" It seems like people feel better if they lose money on an "investment" opposed to a "speculation." Investing means you put money into something and ride out the ups and downs. This includes riding something into the ground. Investing is associated with being "responsible" and "mature." I guess that is a better way to lose money.

After about sixteen years of watching the market and "investing," I am not comfortable making a decision and putting it on autopilot. No, I want to make money! I am not too proud to change my mind if the market changes its mind about a company. Do you think a little guy like me is going to argue with the institutions out there?! No way!

10/20/2005 - WMT strong - shoot

OK - it hurts to be a speculator sometimes. I am missing out on some upward thrusts of WMT since I sold last week. F*&%!. Well, what can I learn from the transaction? First, I have to stop using intraday day data to make decisions when I am using daily close info. If you think about it, the institutions are the one that come in at the end of the day.

10/13/2005 - WMT weak

I thought WMT was going to spike up after the press said that it was undervalued and could go to the 60s this year. Well, the stock did get a bounce but after today I am not too sure that this puppy is going to move like we want. Better to step aside and wait for a clear picture to emerge.

10/10/2005 - Dis - What happened?

Dis 10/10/2005

This one did not work out. I thought it was a good trade but as you can see it did not have enough momentun to push it up. Well, it is not my falt that it is did not go up. It would be my fault if I did not do the proper thing and sell.

Discretionary Vs. Mechanical trading. Which do you like?

Cut losses stupid!