I had a great Thanksgiving and I hope the same for you! I went to N.C. to visit my brother. We had a grand time. On the way I stopped at a hotel to rest. When I awoke, I did what comes naturally and turned on the TV. I got interested in a movie and had to watch the end. Searching for Bobby Fischer, came out in 1993. I wish I could find the screenplay online but no luck. I think the dialogue below is true for anyone who wishes to win. I recommend seeing the whole movie if you have not already!
Bruce: Do you know what it means to have "contempt" for your opponent?
Josh: No.
Bruce: It means to hate them. You have to hate them Josh, they hate you.
Josh: But I don't hate them.
Bruce: Well you'd better start.
AFL - I am reflecting on my AFL sale. I made a mistake. I looked at the news and not the stock action. Listen to the stock NOT the news. Should have held on...
Monday, November 29, 2004
Friday, November 19, 2004
11/19/2004 - Notes
It has been quiet for me on the investing front. I have not made any moves since my AFL sale. There have been some interesting opportunities out there but always missing one of my criteria (i.e. volume too low). Some good stocks rolling over too. To list a few: IBM, HD, AXP, BAC, C. Also, CL has moved south since my sell. B of A came out with a negative report saying there is a big restructuring charge on the horizon.
Still holding: PIR, EPD.
Still holding: PIR, EPD.
Monday, November 15, 2004
11/15/2004 - ???
A.M. NOTES
Well, AFL is up today for some reason. It was downgraded last Friday by Lehman, now the stock is up in early trading.
I think it is better to look at the end of day prices if you are in a swing trade. The hourly Market noise chop will turn you from using a daily chart to a day-trader. I think that is what I unconsciously did the other day. So, if you are making a buy decision based on a daily chart, you should make a sell decision based on a daily chart.
Well, AFL is up today for some reason. It was downgraded last Friday by Lehman, now the stock is up in early trading.
I think it is better to look at the end of day prices if you are in a swing trade. The hourly Market noise chop will turn you from using a daily chart to a day-trader. I think that is what I unconsciously did the other day. So, if you are making a buy decision based on a daily chart, you should make a sell decision based on a daily chart.
Friday, November 12, 2004
11/12/2004 AFL Downgraded by Lehman
AFL - Sold today, Lehman came out and downgraded the stock b/c of sales weakness. Got out with a small loss. I think it is better to stand aside and wait. No need to hold on to a stock with negative sentiment.
I mean, you want to keep your money moving forward, so to speak, like a football team's offense.
I mean, you want to keep your money moving forward, so to speak, like a football team's offense.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Musings - Buy Sell or Hold?
I have become concerned that I may be selling positions too early. I don't have my thoughts formulated so I am going to put down my thoughts and try to make sense of them after.
1. Most likely you will not be able to sell at the exact top of trend.
2. You don't want to give away profits either hoping to get more.
3. You will get faked out of some positions.
4. You are trying to make money (against some very smart people and computers!).
5. Are you following your rules?
6. Go back and go over your plan!
I think it is important to remember that you cannot beat yourself up if you are making an effort to learn and fine tune your skills. Investing is not an easy task and there will be ups and downs. I think of what Gekko said to Bud Fox in the movie Wall Street:
GEKKO - "You're not as smart as I thought you were, Buddy boy, Listen hard -- don't count on Graham and Dodd to make you a fortune, everybody in the market knows the theory, ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep -- and the sheep get slaughtered. I been in the business since '69. Most of these high paid MBAs from Harvard never make it. You need a system, discipline, good people, no deal junkies, no toreadores, the deal flow burns most people out by 35. Give me PSHs -- poor, smart and hungry. And no feelings. You win some, you lose some but you keep on fighting, and if you need a friend, get a dog, it's trench warfare out there sport... (eyeing the surroundings) and in here too. I got twenty other brokers out there, analyzing Charts. I don't need another one. Talk to you sometime..."
P.M. NOTES
I guess I have to be more disciplined on my sells. I have to go over my plan and stick to it. I have to develop my sell discipline!!!
1. Most likely you will not be able to sell at the exact top of trend.
2. You don't want to give away profits either hoping to get more.
3. You will get faked out of some positions.
4. You are trying to make money (against some very smart people and computers!).
5. Are you following your rules?
6. Go back and go over your plan!
I think it is important to remember that you cannot beat yourself up if you are making an effort to learn and fine tune your skills. Investing is not an easy task and there will be ups and downs. I think of what Gekko said to Bud Fox in the movie Wall Street:
GEKKO - "You're not as smart as I thought you were, Buddy boy, Listen hard -- don't count on Graham and Dodd to make you a fortune, everybody in the market knows the theory, ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep -- and the sheep get slaughtered. I been in the business since '69. Most of these high paid MBAs from Harvard never make it. You need a system, discipline, good people, no deal junkies, no toreadores, the deal flow burns most people out by 35. Give me PSHs -- poor, smart and hungry. And no feelings. You win some, you lose some but you keep on fighting, and if you need a friend, get a dog, it's trench warfare out there sport... (eyeing the surroundings) and in here too. I got twenty other brokers out there, analyzing Charts. I don't need another one. Talk to you sometime..."
P.M. NOTES
I guess I have to be more disciplined on my sells. I have to go over my plan and stick to it. I have to develop my sell discipline!!!
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
11/10/2004 - Notes
It has been some time since my last update. I do have a few things that I would like to discuss.
1. I sold MYG a week back with a profit. If you go back and read my blog you see my reasons. What is wrong here? A large part of my trading principles are not based on feeling or what I think could happen. I sold MYG at a profit, which is great. However, MYG is up to $20.10 now. Obviously the market did not care what I thought. Don't tell the market what should happen. Listen to it and act within your plan.
2. CL - SOLD today 11/10/2004. My reason is that the stock is not acting with any force. I held the stock for 21 days and it went up a bit, now it is in a range. I got out with a good profit. I don't want to hold and trades that are in a range. They should be trending. After 21 days, I want that trend to take hold.
3. AFL - BOT 11/08/2004. This stock fit my criteria for the purchase. Lets let is ride and see where it takes us. Stops are in place. Looks like up trend in place.
1. I sold MYG a week back with a profit. If you go back and read my blog you see my reasons. What is wrong here? A large part of my trading principles are not based on feeling or what I think could happen. I sold MYG at a profit, which is great. However, MYG is up to $20.10 now. Obviously the market did not care what I thought. Don't tell the market what should happen. Listen to it and act within your plan.
2. CL - SOLD today 11/10/2004. My reason is that the stock is not acting with any force. I held the stock for 21 days and it went up a bit, now it is in a range. I got out with a good profit. I don't want to hold and trades that are in a range. They should be trending. After 21 days, I want that trend to take hold.
3. AFL - BOT 11/08/2004. This stock fit my criteria for the purchase. Lets let is ride and see where it takes us. Stops are in place. Looks like up trend in place.
Friday, November 05, 2004
11/05/2004 - Notes
What a bullish week we had! Viva Bush! Lets hope things continue this way for while.
CL - Stock had a pretty good week. The stock was oversold when I bought so it is coming back a little. The tricky part is selling. Like I said earlier, I want to see a 5 in the stock price. The market will tell me when to sell, so keeping listening. Give it some room to go.
EPD - Paid it nice dividend and is trending up! Keep listening.
PIR - Did nada today. Will be paying a div soon. I may dump this one. I bought it following what other investors are doing. Not a good strategy. I will look at it again on Monday.
CL - Stock had a pretty good week. The stock was oversold when I bought so it is coming back a little. The tricky part is selling. Like I said earlier, I want to see a 5 in the stock price. The market will tell me when to sell, so keeping listening. Give it some room to go.
EPD - Paid it nice dividend and is trending up! Keep listening.
PIR - Did nada today. Will be paying a div soon. I may dump this one. I bought it following what other investors are doing. Not a good strategy. I will look at it again on Monday.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
11/04/2004 - Notes
It has been some time since my last update. The Market was not really moving pre-election jitters. Since Bush won the election, the Market has done well. A nice change of pace for us investors. The month of October was OK for me. The S&P SPDRs returned 2.88% and I returned .085%. I attribute my anemic performance to Merck. I own it. If you are read the business section in the newspaper, you know what happened. Anyway, Merck is why I trailed the S&P 500. So, where do we stand now?
EPD - $23.96 - slight trend up.
PIR - $18.64 - slight trend up. Still in a range though.
CL - $46.52 - Too early to tell. Up but down by about the same in after hours. I want to see this stock reach the low 50s soon. That is my target now.
EPD - $23.96 - slight trend up.
PIR - $18.64 - slight trend up. Still in a range though.
CL - $46.52 - Too early to tell. Up but down by about the same in after hours. I want to see this stock reach the low 50s soon. That is my target now.
Friday, October 29, 2004
10/29/2004 - Notes
MYG - stock hit the $17.40 price mark. Sold at $17.37. A small profit. MYG is going through some problems, there debt is junk rated. This is not a stock that I want to hold on to for very long. Technically, it was oversold, so I bought. Fundamentally, the stock has a lot of work to do. I followed my plan and it work out.
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
10/27/2004 - Notes
MYG - stock has made a move up over the past couple of days. Usually the stock is strong in the afternoon. I like that since many institutions do much of their trading in the PM. If MYG shows weakness tmrw, stock is being sold. The company has a lot of problems to fix and I don't feel like holding on to a "fixer-upper" especially if I am not involved in the fixing. If the stock goes around $17.40, I am selling.
Monday, October 25, 2004
10/25/2004 - Notes
PIR - In range, small buying and selling. Not much going on here
EPD - In range, up today
CL - down today, I looked at the 1 min chart and there was some buying. I am not too concerned here. Stop is one so downside is limited.
MYG - I bought on technical advice. I am not going to hang around if this one goes south. Too much speculation here. Junk bond status. Stock was up today.
EPD - In range, up today
CL - down today, I looked at the 1 min chart and there was some buying. I am not too concerned here. Stop is one so downside is limited.
MYG - I bought on technical advice. I am not going to hang around if this one goes south. Too much speculation here. Junk bond status. Stock was up today.
Friday, October 22, 2004
10/22/2004 - Notes
CL - Down $0.15 in a narrow range. I have to give this stock some time to move.
EPD - Down $0.09, in range
PIR - Down $0.08, in range
MYG - looks interesting, will monitor on Monday.
EPD - Down $0.09, in range
PIR - Down $0.08, in range
MYG - looks interesting, will monitor on Monday.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
10/20/2004 - Notes
Colgate-Palmoliv (CL) - This stock came out with OK news today. They are going to aggressively improve their marketing and did not adjust their earnings forecast downward. Institutions piled in today. I bought some at $45.35. Probably the high for the day. I have a stop in place so the downside is measured. The Company goes ex-div tmrw so the price my fall a bit. The Co also said they would buy back 20 mil shares. That should offer some downside support to the stock.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
10/19/2004 - Notes
EPD - In a trading range.
PIR - $16.33 stop price. Down today but some big buying at the end of the day.
There was an interesting article in the WSJ last week. Peter Lynch had bought into a stock recently that "tanked." Some individuals piggybacked Lynch and bought too. However, this stock lost much of its value because of a scandal. So, some of the individuals are broke because they followed PL blindly. This should serve as a reminder that there is no easy way to make money in the capital markets. Think for yourself. You may be impressed with the results!
I am keeping an eye on a few individual stocks. There have been some sell offs but nothing moving up fast. Be patient, an opportunity will come.
PIR - $16.33 stop price. Down today but some big buying at the end of the day.
There was an interesting article in the WSJ last week. Peter Lynch had bought into a stock recently that "tanked." Some individuals piggybacked Lynch and bought too. However, this stock lost much of its value because of a scandal. So, some of the individuals are broke because they followed PL blindly. This should serve as a reminder that there is no easy way to make money in the capital markets. Think for yourself. You may be impressed with the results!
I am keeping an eye on a few individual stocks. There have been some sell offs but nothing moving up fast. Be patient, an opportunity will come.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
10/14/2004 - Notes
I do not have too much to talk about. The markets are going down right now, so there has not been much buying. My system seems to be doing its job. There have been no new purchases during this slide. LBY was bought due to some indicators and news. It did move up a bit. However, this stock has reversed and has headed south. I sold before the move and squeaked out a small gain.
I am keeping my eye on a few ideas but nothing is turning around yet. Stocks move up but it just seems to be noise. I don't see any huge breakouts. Satyam, is breaking out. You may recall that this stock was sold at $23.05 for a good profit. I had to sell given my objective and plan.
So, keep searching and sniffing out prey. We'll find some good eatins' soon....
I am keeping my eye on a few ideas but nothing is turning around yet. Stocks move up but it just seems to be noise. I don't see any huge breakouts. Satyam, is breaking out. You may recall that this stock was sold at $23.05 for a good profit. I had to sell given my objective and plan.
So, keep searching and sniffing out prey. We'll find some good eatins' soon....
Monday, October 11, 2004
10/11/200 - Notes
A.M. NOTES
I just finnished a book by Andy Kessler entitled, Running Money. It was a good read. I recommend it to anybody interested in the market and business. There were many ideas and stories that interested me in the book. One thought in particular stuck out. It is a long quote but important. So read...
"Those 'families with substantial assets' had wealth, but it wasn't static. Every generation it shrank unless they chased returns. No rest for the weary. But they don't like risk. Well, too bad. I think what I learned is that wealth comes not just from taking risk but from constantly taking risks."
So if you think you can buy Coke and Merck and go golfing everyday, think again. Making money is not that easy. You must develop a system, pay attention, and be disciplined to succeed. Also, you must think for yourself.
I just finnished a book by Andy Kessler entitled, Running Money. It was a good read. I recommend it to anybody interested in the market and business. There were many ideas and stories that interested me in the book. One thought in particular stuck out. It is a long quote but important. So read...
"Those 'families with substantial assets' had wealth, but it wasn't static. Every generation it shrank unless they chased returns. No rest for the weary. But they don't like risk. Well, too bad. I think what I learned is that wealth comes not just from taking risk but from constantly taking risks."
So if you think you can buy Coke and Merck and go golfing everyday, think again. Making money is not that easy. You must develop a system, pay attention, and be disciplined to succeed. Also, you must think for yourself.
Sunday, October 10, 2004
10/10/2004 - Notes
Sorry for not updating my journal as often as usual. I have been away. Now I am back and ready to get down to business.
EPD - This stock continues to show strength. You could take some profits now but I feel this stock should be held longer. You get 7% on your money while you wait. Not bad in today's interest rate environment. EPD has entered a new trading range. May take a while for the stock to digest its recent gains.
PIR - Still in trading range. Still waiting...
S&P 500 SPDRs month of Sept return for the S&P 500 Spiders was 0.0157. **Market Return - Morningstar calculates the market-price return by taking the change in the fund's market price, reinvesting all income and capital-gains distributions during the period, and dividing by the starting market price.
The return on my portfolio was 0.0275.
EPD - This stock continues to show strength. You could take some profits now but I feel this stock should be held longer. You get 7% on your money while you wait. Not bad in today's interest rate environment. EPD has entered a new trading range. May take a while for the stock to digest its recent gains.
PIR - Still in trading range. Still waiting...
S&P 500 SPDRs month of Sept return for the S&P 500 Spiders was 0.0157. **Market Return - Morningstar calculates the market-price return by taking the change in the fund's market price, reinvesting all income and capital-gains distributions during the period, and dividing by the starting market price.
The return on my portfolio was 0.0275.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
10/6/2004 - Notes
P.M. NOTES
LBY - up today on almost double volume at 90K. Price up about $1.00. 20/20 hindsight is always great to have. The one thing that I did not do was give LBY some breathing room. I bought and had my stop but got scared for reasons mentioned in my previous post.
I don't see anything compelling right now. I am sure there is stuff out there but I can't see it. Still hunting though...
LBY - up today on almost double volume at 90K. Price up about $1.00. 20/20 hindsight is always great to have. The one thing that I did not do was give LBY some breathing room. I bought and had my stop but got scared for reasons mentioned in my previous post.
I don't see anything compelling right now. I am sure there is stuff out there but I can't see it. Still hunting though...
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