Volume

You know, I was thinking how these books on trading tell you how to look for big volume as a signal to buy or sell. I agree with them but I do not think it is that easy. Look, these institutions are smart. They don't want to put up a big flag and say, "hey look, we are buying (or selling)." No, they want to be quiet. So, don't think that volume is a big telltale sign. You have to focus on price and the close on the day.

This is fun! New Title!

Speculate : to assume a business risk in hope of gain; especially : to buy or sell in expectation of profiting from market fluctuations.

You may have noticed that I changed the title name of my blog. I must admit that it took me many years to accept the word "speculate" into my realm of thinking. I was bought up to "invest!" It seems like people feel better if they lose money on an "investment" opposed to a "speculation." Investing means you put money into something and ride out the ups and downs. This includes riding something into the ground. Investing is associated with being "responsible" and "mature." I guess that is a better way to lose money.

After about sixteen years of watching the market and "investing," I am not comfortable making a decision and putting it on autopilot. No, I want to make money! I am not too proud to change my mind if the market changes its mind about a company. Do you think a little guy like me is going to argue with the institutions out there?! No way!

10/20/2005 - WMT strong - shoot

OK - it hurts to be a speculator sometimes. I am missing out on some upward thrusts of WMT since I sold last week. F*&%!. Well, what can I learn from the transaction? First, I have to stop using intraday day data to make decisions when I am using daily close info. If you think about it, the institutions are the one that come in at the end of the day.

10/13/2005 - WMT weak

I thought WMT was going to spike up after the press said that it was undervalued and could go to the 60s this year. Well, the stock did get a bounce but after today I am not too sure that this puppy is going to move like we want. Better to step aside and wait for a clear picture to emerge.

10/10/2005 - Dis - What happened?

Dis 10/10/2005

This one did not work out. I thought it was a good trade but as you can see it did not have enough momentun to push it up. Well, it is not my falt that it is did not go up. It would be my fault if I did not do the proper thing and sell.

Discretionary Vs. Mechanical trading. Which do you like?

Cut losses stupid!

09/30/2005 - Dis looks good!

dis 9/30/05

I have been keeping and eye on the market - as usual, and I saw some stocks that looked pretty interesting. MSFT, INTC, RTN and DIS. DIS looked pretty attractive to me and I purchased some shares today at $24.13. I am hoping a trend is in place and that we can ride this all next week!

09/22/2005 - Down Down Down

Looking at the charts of the Dow I see a lot of selling going on! I thought Wall Street expected the 25 basis pt rate hike. Maybe Mr. G is trying to nip this housing boom in the bud. True oil is at $67/barrel and we have another hurricane coming to the US.

I am still in oil but I have raised cash recently. Keeping an eye on stocks to REBOUND! They are still going down now!

09/21/2005 - sold C

I sold C today. I was caught between feelings of sell or hold. Unfortunately the market does not care if you are undecided or don't know what you are doing. It will slam you no matter what. On one hand Citi is trying to turn itself around. However, rates are rising, which is a negative for banks. I sold and took a small profit.

9/20/2005 - Wal-Mart

WMT 9/20/2005

This chart caught my eye. Too early to enter into a trade but it is beaten down and will most likely bounce back, unless mgmt is really sleeping. Lets wait for the knife to land before we grab it!

09/19/2005 - C

Citi 9/19/2005

This trade is working out OK. You may recall that I bought Citi a couple weeks back but sold out b/c it did not look like it was going to work out. Well, I bought it back and this time it worked. The one thing that I have learned is to cut losses and let profits ride. So, I will let C move up on its own until it tells me that it is tired and rolls over and goes back to bed.

09/09/2005 - This stock is a waste

of time. CAFE is down $0.93 this morning. Everyday there is a news blurb about this company. Today, the NASDAQ is going to delist the shares and warrants. Also, there is so much banter on the message board that my head is spinning. OK, here is probably what was going on with the recent increase in the stock price. The shorts knew that the stock was going to be delisted so they had to buy back shares to cover their positions. This action would drive the stock up. Just an idea.

09/07/2005 - CAFE - What?

I hate to say this but I bought some CAFE today. You know, that stock that went from $3 to $15 and then was halted for a couple weeks. It started trading and went down to $3 again. This AM is started to move again and it showed some strength! I did pick some up at $3.28 and SOLD at $3.70. It was actually a stupid move. Lucky to make money on that one.

Bought back into Citigroup again. I bought at $44.19. Stock is showing strength again. Hoping the Fed keeps rates the same and that the new CEO makes profitable changes. Lets see!?

What else happened?
oil (-$1.68 to $65.03/bbl)

With respect to individual equities, there were notable upgrades today for three Dow components that have lent a measure of support to the broader market... To that end, McDonald's (MCD 33.27 +0.61) went to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, while Piper Jaffray upped JP Morgan (JPM 34.79 +0.22) to Outperform from Market Perform and UBS upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.55 +0.30) to Buy from Neutral...

1-week
Top Performer

DJ US Heavy Construction Index (CON)

Last: 244.11
Percent Change: -0.27%

1-month
Top Performer

DJ US Consumer Electronics Index (CSE)

Last: 696.41
Percent Change: -0.99%

6 month
Top Performer

DJ US Water Index (WAT)

Last: 754.02
Percent Change: 0.73%

YTD
Top Performer

DJ US Coal Index (COA)

Last: 265.29
Percent Change: 0.74%

09/06/2005 - Recaps - - -

Host America (CAFE) has started to trade again as of last week. You may have read some commentary in my past postings. Well, all is not well at CAFE. The stock is trading at about $3 down from the mid-teens. I am grateful that I did not buy any hoping for the greater fool theory to work out for me.


CAFE


Dominos Pizza has trading down since I sold too. I was surprised that the stock dod not move when it had great earnings out last quarter. I did not to wait to find out what the real story was about while holding on to the shares.

I hope all had a great summer. I know I did and I am sorry to see the summer sky change to autumn. I was lucky to get to Pocasset, Cape Cod a few time and do some fishing. My total catch YTD is three Blues and one Striper. I hope to get out a couple more times while the fish are starting their migration to North Carolina.

08/25/2005 - Shoot!

Well, --- I got out of Citigroup. I thought we were onto something here. The stock picked it head up last week and showed some strength. This week, not so. Looks like investors are not sure about the new leader at C. We all know how the Market hates uncertainty. True, change is sometimes good but on Wall Street, investors want to get a good idea about the direction a company will take. That is where we are now. I am not in the "hoping" business. I sold with a small loss and will go in again if things look better.

08/16/2005 - What I think now.

OK, DPZ is showing weakness. I sold my position. It may be basing but I have a 25% gain and will lock into that now.

MOT id showing weakness. I sold my position for a small gain. 22$ a share was a magic number for that company. The stock had a nice run up the prior weeks. Can't go like that forever.

C, I like this company and bought at $43.73. Stock is showing some good strength the past few days.

08/10/2005 - Citigroup and DPZ

C
Citigroup has hit a major support point. It will be interesting to see what happens here. If C goes any lower new support will be established. I would like to see the stock pick its head up and pop a few points. I am keeping an eye on this one.



DPZ

So what do you think will happen to DPZ? The stock had great earnings last qtr yet the Street did not reward it at all. I know, disappointing. I think the Street is waiting to see what mgmt has up its sleeve to keep earnings going. I know Bain Capital probably went in and has expanded the margins the best they could by tweaking the technology and maybe negotiating with suppliers. We have to see how DPZ comes up with new ideas to create more sales. Will they start serving breakfast in bed? Will they make hot dogs and cheese burgers? Beats me?

08/04/2005

08/03/2005 - You gotta love this Market!

The one thing that you can count on is that you can never figure out how the Market will react, at least I can't. What am I talking about? Lets talk about two live examples, DPZ and MOT.

DPZ came out with great earnings for the last qtr and what did the stock do? Went down. On the other hand, analysts are telling us that MOT is fairly valued at $21., yet the stock keeps going up.

You can't do anything about it but you have to be open minded to succeed in the Market.

From the Yahoo Message Board, a chap wrote:

They guided down on the full year. With the new regulations of FD (Full Disclosure), the Street reacts more to guidance then quarterly results. Prior to FD, the quarterly results drove price increases and guidance was the extra push, assuming that it was positive. If it was neutral, the Street knew that it would have access to feret out results during the active quarter. That's all changed now.

Makes sense to me. The company said they will have earnings of 13-15%. The PE is at 25. Could be price a little high. Lets see what happend tmwr!

08/02/2005 - DPZ

08/02/2005

You may remember my posting about DPZ in April. The stock has had a nice move up so far. It is up about 25% since I mentioned it. I think this stock is forming a base now. I do not want to make any quick moves but I am keeping and eye on DPZ. Is it basing or losing steam?

08/01/2005 - OTEX - strength?

08/01/2005

OTEX, stock is showing strength. Too early to tell how much strength there is though. Keeping an eye on this one though. Sell poiunt on this would be at about $11.65.

MOT seems to be doing OK after BOA's downgrade. The stock was up $.34 today. BOA really did not say anything. They must have had a deadline to publish a report and they could not come up with anything to say.