Genworth - good but sold

GNW 4/29/2005

You know, I like GNW. I wanted to see this sucker go up to $35. However, I saw something today that made me a little nervous. You see where that red circle is up there on the chart. Too choppy for me. The price is flirting with the 50 Day MA. The stock does not know what it wants to do. I would rather stand on the sidelines and wait for it to figure this out then hold on and cross my fingers. I sold, made a tiny profit.

Corning (GLW) - sold off huge today but came back to finish about flat for the day. That shows some pretty good strenth. I expect this stock to creep up over the next couple months. The stock had done nada for a long time but finally broke out of a trading range. Espect good things as a result.

PIR & HAWK updates - going down down down

PIR

I remember talking about PIR earlier and things are pretty much turning out as I expected. Actually, I am a little surprised that PIR has not done better given that Warren Buffett's company owns some of the equity. Well, maybe I am right about the Target theory (you can buy the same crap in Target... at a lower price.)



HAWK

Remember, I spoke about the bearish divergence? The stock is sinking, which is not surprising. The stock just did not have the power to move it forward. The institutions came in but even they could not move this puppy up. It was good that I sold...

I am short on apples!!!

AAPL 4/27/2005

A good buddy of mine just bought an iPod. He is pretty tech savvy but not one to buy into fads. So when I saw him go out and buy one of these memory machines, I knew that the iPod must be "mainstream." So, what does Apple have up its sleeve now? Some kind of new computer called the Tiger? I actually don't know and you probably are correct in telling me to shut-up. However, do you remember when AAPL was a computer company (only), before the iPod? Do you remember what the stock was trading at? $13-14 a share. So, now that the iPod run is over, AAPL is back to computers. I wonder where the stock price will go?

I shorted this at $36.55. So, I don't think this sucker is going up.

4/22/2005 - AIG yes... NO. not yet.

AIG 4/22/05 daily


4/22/05 AIG weekly

I was looking at AIG the other day and it looked pretty interesting. The daily chart looks like a bulling divergence. The stock was making recent new lows but the MACD Hist was above the 0 line. However, the weekly chart did not show that bullish divergence. It shows a much different story. The MACD hist was making a new low! I would not buy now. I was close though.

Any thoughts?

04/14/2005 - HAWK - update

04/14/2005 - HAWK

You remember that I had bought HAWK and then sold the stock. Looks like the Bearish Divergence that I mentioned is starting to play out now. This stock was too risky to hold based on its technicals. Better to sell and preserve your capital.

04/14/2005 - AAPL - update

AAPL 4/14/2005

You may recall that I had a broker call me trying to sell me AAPL reverse convertible bonds. I politely declined. I just could not see AAPL continuing its climb that it has had over the last couple years. The broker even said that the retailers are expecting iPod to sell briskly through the summer. What? Was I born yesterday? If the retailers are expecting it, I am sure Wall Street is too. Nice try.

You could see this stock cracking from a mile away. Today, the stock trades below its 50 MA. Sure the stock may bounce up a little but I think the street is waiting for AAPL's next rabbit trick. I know I am...

04/14/2005 - Pier 1 - update

Pier 1 Imports - 4/14/2005

You may have remembered that I wrote about (PIR) a while back. I actually owned it because I saw that Berkshire owned some. I then sold the stock for a couple reasons. First, buying a stock because someone else has is not smart. Also, the stock was in a trading range for a while. So, I sold. I am looking at a current chart and it looks like I made a good choice. PIR has had a hard time convincing investors that their new strategy is going to work. As I said before, can't you buy the same crap in Target?

04/07/2005 - DPZ > > > ME hungry!

DPZ is looking like it is making a move to another upward trend. The stock was over the $19. mark today, an area where it was getting a lot of resistance. Bain Capital still holding a lot of stock. I can't imagine Bain wanting to lose money on this (or anything else they do). They want to see this go up. I can't think of too many other coattails with similar success stories as Bain Capital. I like the stock now.

04/06/2005 - What's up with this?

ford 40605

Can someone tell me what the excitement is with this stock. From what I can tell, this company make carrying cases for cell phones. I know the company is making money and has a PE of 34. Carrying cases?

04/06/2005 - Bearish Divergence = Sell

hawk 40605

This was a company that I thought had some good potential. The chart is breaking down. I only noticed a Bearish Divergence today. This stock was losing steam while going up. Risky to hold this long now.

04/05/2005 - My Complaints Today

I don't know what is going on with HAWK. Looking at the chart, it does not look too strong. Tomorrow will be interesting. If the stock shows more weakness, it may be time to dump it and wait for it to start showing strength.

DPZ is inching up - slowly. I would buy this stock if it had more volume to it. I just don't see institutions buying yet and they move stocks.

GNW is moving up slowly. Lets be patient and hold on to this one.

04/01/2005 - Good Day in the Oil Patch

Hello,

Well, HAWK moved up $1.05 to $11.53. Goldman came out saying oil could hit $105. Also, HAWK is making money right now. You saw in my earlier chart how it looked like the institutions were buying. Lets hope that continues!

GNW was up $0.09 today to $27.61.

DPZ, was down a bit. How is Bain Capital going to dump its shares with such low volume. Once the volume comes, this stock may move fast. I don't see it yet...

3/29/2005 - Dr. Alex Elder Webnar - Good Time!

DJIA 3/29/2005

I participated in a webnar with Dr. Alexander Elder today. I enjoyed it very much. Actually, this was my first webnar ever. The above chart shows the weekly graph of the DJIA, showing a Bearish Divergence! Needless to say, Dr. Elder is bearish now. I believe John Murphy is bearish too. I guess they are seeing the same things.

Here is how Elder views markets now:
Oil - Bullish long-term (start buying oil if it hits $50. on the next dip)
Interest Rates - going up
US Dollar - going up
Euro - going down
Stock Market - going down
housing stocks - short

Books Elder recommended:
Elder's Books
Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes


I picked up some Genworth (GNW) at $26.78. I would like to see the stock get up to its 20 day EMA. The stock still has some room to move.

03/25/2005 - Genworth

GNW 3/25/2005

Genworth, GE spinoff of their insurance group. They did a secondary offering at $26.50 last week.

03/22/2005 - Pizza anyone?

03/22/2005 - DPZ

Just an idea. Dominos Pizza is forming a cup-handle pattern. Bain Capital has a bunch of shares that they are going to have to unload. The stock does not have big volume, which is a problem. I can't see Bain wanting to hold on to this stock Long-term.

03/18/2005 - PIR ??? What's the rush?

03/18/2005 - PIR

Pier 1 (PIR) is getting a lot of press these days. I don't know if you have noticed. The NYT had an article about how PIR pulled their ad campaign last season and now they are revamping the stores to make them less cluttered. A new ad campaign will be introduced too.

Looks like the institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The stock is down over the last couple of days. I would not take this stock seriously until it starts trading over $19.97. It could make a quick move if it does hit that area.

It is a make or break time for PIR. They have had more excuses for their bad perfomance over the last year. I would think that management's credibility is starting to wear and tire the analysts and investors. Maybe the business model does not work anymore. Did anyone think of that? I mean, can't you buy the same crap at a Target or Wal-Mart? - and for less?

03/16/2005 - MIT discussion group

Good morning. Last week I told you that I was going to a discussion over at MIT concerning technical analysis. Specifically, Joseph E. Majocha was going to speak about his website Selective Chartists.

In general I thought Joe had some good stuff to say. I give him credit for getting up in front of, what I thought were, some pretty confident and cocky people. There was one older man named Herb who was basically giving Joe a tough time. One time he asked Joe where Martha Stewart would have sold. Joe did not answer but I could not restrain myself. I chirped out, "the top!"

The one thing that I got from this meeting was that there is no magic bullet. We all have the same tools. We may interpret information differently, which is what separates those who make money from those who don't.

The other point that Joe said, but went unnoticed, was that he cut his losses quickly. Preserve your capital and get another chance to make money. Let's face, not all trades will be winners.

03/15/2005 - HAWK

Petrohawk Energy Corp. 3/15/2005

This company looks interesting. It reminds me of a company you would see in IBD where there is no volume for a point in time and then the institutions discover it. It looks like there are some buyser here. I also see the 27% of the company is still owned by insiders. Finished up today.

03/12/2005 - The Coming Week

I am excited for next Tuesday (the 15th). MIT is hosting a discussion on technical analysis. I will let you know how it goes.

I have recently sold EPD and FCL. I was very happy with the results. FCL sold with a 25.5% gain and EPD with a 20% gain. Both stocks were held less than a year. Energy picks are getting difficult. Many issues have moved up quite a bit over the last year. You don't want to get caught playing the "greater fool" game. I don't anyway.

I have scaled back on my trades. GM catches my eye. I would not want to catch a falling knife but this stock has potential to start moving up again.

03/10/2005 - EPD sold for 25.5% gain

OK, you guessed by the title of today's posting that I sold EPD at $26.50. I bought the stock at $20.29, 278 days ago. I am pleased with the return. The stock seems to have stalled. They keep fooling around with their capital structure which worries me. They may know what they are doing but I don't.