You know I often get bogged down with little items about the Market and lose sight of the big picture. Since the beginning of the month, my portfolio has done well. It is all attributed to energy stocks. Exxon and Petrochina have done very well. You may have read the Exxon is now larger than GE in terms of market capitalization. I own two other energy companies that are performing just OK. Enterprise Products and Foundation Coal have done well, but not as good as the oil cos. I am not going to fiddle with this part of my portfolio.
I do have some cash from my sale of NSL and EAD. These funds are interest rate sensitive and took a turn for the worst last week. I was able to dump both funds with a profit plus dividends they paid. It was not a huge killing but not bad for a couple weeks work. I will be on the hunt for new ideas.
Friday's News.....
With respect to the January PPI report, its core component (excludes food and energy), which showed a surprising 0.8% increase versus the consensus estimate that called for a more modest 0.2% increase...
The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note jumped 8 basis points to 4.26% and the yield on the 30-yr bond rose 7 basis points to 4.65%...
Monday, February 21, 2005
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
02/15/2005 - Back from VT
Hello and thank you for joining me again. I have been away for a few days. I good friend of mine had his bachelor party up at Killington Vermont. We had a grand old time. I think I am still feeling the effects.
I sold my NSL at $9.69. I am pleased. I was getting a dividend yield of 6% and I also received 5% capital appreciation, which would have been 43% annualized.
Still holding on to EAD. Yield 10%.
Two charts that I have been looking at but probably won't buy because they have gotten away from me are P&G and EBAY. The downtrend on these two charts shows a strong reversal. Too bad I was away.
I sold my NSL at $9.69. I am pleased. I was getting a dividend yield of 6% and I also received 5% capital appreciation, which would have been 43% annualized.
Still holding on to EAD. Yield 10%.
Two charts that I have been looking at but probably won't buy because they have gotten away from me are P&G and EBAY. The downtrend on these two charts shows a strong reversal. Too bad I was away.
02/16/2005 - Sold EAD too!
Yup sold EAD today at $15.29. I am please with the sale. Made a short term gain. The suprise of the day was Foundation Coal (FCL). The earned $.15 a share last qtr. The stock was up about $1.34 today. Lets hope this catches some attention from the institutions.
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
02/08/2005 - Not Much New - What?
I have been on the sidelines lately. I still hold NSL and EAD, both have performed well for me. I am in no hurry to allocate capital now.
John Murphy had some interesting things to say today about interest rates. I was also reading something about interest rates yesterday and the author said that long-term rates are coming down because the Fed is raising short-term rates and thus mitigating inflation long-term.
Every recession in the last forty years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.
Bond yields fell sharply last Friday on a weak jobs report. Fourth quarter GDP came in way below expectations and was the weakest of the year. That's also pushed yields lower. The fact that bond prices have done better than stocks so far this year also suggests a more defensive attitude on the part of investors. Then there's the impact of falling bond yields on the yield curve.
Energy stocks remain the market's strongest sector -- while technology is the weakest. That's a bad combination for the stock market. The fact that consumer staples and utilities have been market leaders early in the new year (along with energy) is a sign that the economic cycle could be peaking. Then there's the January Barometer which gave a negative vote for the market this year. A little known aspect of January's performance is that sector leaders during January often lead for the entire year. And sector laggards often lag for the balance of the year. That's another vote for defensive market sectors -- especially energy. If rising energy shares are hinting at higher oil prices, that's not going to be good for the rest of the market or the economy. Maybe that's why bond yields are dropping.
The above statements are John Murphy's from Stockcharts.com.
John Murphy had some interesting things to say today about interest rates. I was also reading something about interest rates yesterday and the author said that long-term rates are coming down because the Fed is raising short-term rates and thus mitigating inflation long-term.
Every recession in the last forty years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.
Bond yields fell sharply last Friday on a weak jobs report. Fourth quarter GDP came in way below expectations and was the weakest of the year. That's also pushed yields lower. The fact that bond prices have done better than stocks so far this year also suggests a more defensive attitude on the part of investors. Then there's the impact of falling bond yields on the yield curve.
Energy stocks remain the market's strongest sector -- while technology is the weakest. That's a bad combination for the stock market. The fact that consumer staples and utilities have been market leaders early in the new year (along with energy) is a sign that the economic cycle could be peaking. Then there's the January Barometer which gave a negative vote for the market this year. A little known aspect of January's performance is that sector leaders during January often lead for the entire year. And sector laggards often lag for the balance of the year. That's another vote for defensive market sectors -- especially energy. If rising energy shares are hinting at higher oil prices, that's not going to be good for the rest of the market or the economy. Maybe that's why bond yields are dropping.
The above statements are John Murphy's from Stockcharts.com.
Friday, February 04, 2005
02/04/2005 - Update
Sorry, I have not been around. I actually have a day job in Real Estate too. So I have been busy with that.
I am pleased so far with my move into the Evergreen Income Adv. The fund is up to $15.76 from $15.20, where I bought. Plus the 11% div yield. Nuveen Sr Incm Fd is doing well too. I am happy with my energy stuff, EPD and FCL. So, I do not have any trade ideas yet. I am still reframing that part of my portfolio.
News today:
- January non-farm payrolls rose 146K, weaker than the 200K economists expected and below an average gain of 177K over the four prior months...
- crude oil prices ($46.48/bbl +$0.03)
I am pleased so far with my move into the Evergreen Income Adv. The fund is up to $15.76 from $15.20, where I bought. Plus the 11% div yield. Nuveen Sr Incm Fd is doing well too. I am happy with my energy stuff, EPD and FCL. So, I do not have any trade ideas yet. I am still reframing that part of my portfolio.
News today:
- January non-farm payrolls rose 146K, weaker than the 200K economists expected and below an average gain of 177K over the four prior months...
- crude oil prices ($46.48/bbl +$0.03)
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
02/01/2005 - Notes
The market was up! Yippie! Let's not get carried away.
First, I would like to say that I am please with the EVERGREEN INCOME ADV so far. The fund is up and yields around 11%. I like those numbers. NUVEEN SR INCM FD is up too from where I bought and yields me 6%. As you can see I have dug my heals in somewhat. I was not clicking with the market when the new year began, so I retreated and reframed the plan.
First, I would like to say that I am please with the EVERGREEN INCOME ADV so far. The fund is up and yields around 11%. I like those numbers. NUVEEN SR INCM FD is up too from where I bought and yields me 6%. As you can see I have dug my heals in somewhat. I was not clicking with the market when the new year began, so I retreated and reframed the plan.
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