I like this company. I bought some today with my "long-term" money. There are a couple things at play here that I like. First, you get exposure to China. Have you seen this company's financials? They look pretty good from where I am standing. No debt, a profit margin of 23%, a dividend of about 3%. That is not too shabby. Also, this is a growth play. The company is investing in its railroad and stations. The population in China is becoming more wealthy with a need to travel and transport cargo. The technicals look "over-bought", but this company keeps making new highs. I like the odds on this one...
Thursday, December 30, 2004
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
12/29/2004 - Re-Cap of Previous Trades in 2004
Hahhhh... Where to begin? 2004 was a good year, not great, but good. I made five trades and a few that I am still holding since I begin keeping this blog. Lets review the damage.
Libbey - bought on 10/1/04 at $18.99 sold at $19.37 current price is $21.52. I did not like holding this stock because its volume was about 50K shares a day. There was a lot of slippage buying and selling this one. Got out with a small profit.
Colgate - bought on 10/20/2004 at $45.35 sold at $46.58 current price is $50.12. I guess I should have held on a little longer. Why didn't I? I expected this stock to move up a little faster. Instead the stock languished and ended up in a trading range. It still is in a range. I was able to get the dividend though. A plus.
Maytag - bought on 10/25/2004 at $16.84 sold at $17.37 current price is $21.00. I was not looking for a big move on this stock. I don't know why I set an expectation on this stock. I have to remind myself to let the stock market decide when I buy and sell. I should have listened to the market closer. I was also concerned about their debt rating, which was lowered.
Aflac - bought on 11/8/2004 at $37.20 sold at $37.01 current price is $40.11. Shoot! Well, you win some you lose some. I made the mistake of selling during the trading day. I try not to do this. I am not a day trader. I try to let the day play out and see what the institutions do in the afternoon. Sure enough, after I sold the stock trended up again. I protected my capital though.
OSI pharmaceuticals - bought on 12/14/2004 at $49.00 sold at $47.53 current price is $73.15! Double ouch! What can I say? This stock was a gamble and I lost. The stock could have gone down $20.00 too. I can't dwell on this one. Look forward not behind.
I still ended up ahead.
A few lessons:
1) Don't traffic in low volume stocks
2) Don't be in a hurry to sell for profits
3) Be patient
Libbey - bought on 10/1/04 at $18.99 sold at $19.37 current price is $21.52. I did not like holding this stock because its volume was about 50K shares a day. There was a lot of slippage buying and selling this one. Got out with a small profit.
Colgate - bought on 10/20/2004 at $45.35 sold at $46.58 current price is $50.12. I guess I should have held on a little longer. Why didn't I? I expected this stock to move up a little faster. Instead the stock languished and ended up in a trading range. It still is in a range. I was able to get the dividend though. A plus.
Maytag - bought on 10/25/2004 at $16.84 sold at $17.37 current price is $21.00. I was not looking for a big move on this stock. I don't know why I set an expectation on this stock. I have to remind myself to let the stock market decide when I buy and sell. I should have listened to the market closer. I was also concerned about their debt rating, which was lowered.
Aflac - bought on 11/8/2004 at $37.20 sold at $37.01 current price is $40.11. Shoot! Well, you win some you lose some. I made the mistake of selling during the trading day. I try not to do this. I am not a day trader. I try to let the day play out and see what the institutions do in the afternoon. Sure enough, after I sold the stock trended up again. I protected my capital though.
OSI pharmaceuticals - bought on 12/14/2004 at $49.00 sold at $47.53 current price is $73.15! Double ouch! What can I say? This stock was a gamble and I lost. The stock could have gone down $20.00 too. I can't dwell on this one. Look forward not behind.
I still ended up ahead.
A few lessons:
1) Don't traffic in low volume stocks
2) Don't be in a hurry to sell for profits
3) Be patient
Monday, December 27, 2004
12/27/2004 - Scott Black
Hello, hope you all had a great Christmas for those who celebrate. I am pleased with my gifts. I received a few books that I had on my Amazon Wish List. I will have plenty to read for a couple months.
The Market has been pretty quiet for me. Today I decided to see what Scott Black has been up to. Scott runs Delphi Management out of Boston's Rowes Warf. Some of you may recognized Scott's name from Barron's round table. I read Barron's with a grain of salt. Some of these "superstar" analysts at the round table will make an incorrect prediction and then have the hubris not to even acknowledge their blooper the next time the "table" gathers. Don't get me started on Abbey Joseph Cohen.
I do like Scott Black. He is a Graham Dodd disciple, which is not a bad thing. Bottom line about Scott is that he is no dummy.
I am a little surprised to see that Scott's biggest holding is BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B. Basically Scott has Warren Buffett managing some money. Moving on, Scott's fund sold Coke, before its slide (good move) and bought Pfizer, Pier One, Cypress Semiconductor. All value plays, which is no surprise. Pier One, is one of Berkshire's big holdings too.
The fourth quarter is almost over so we will revisit the 13F filings in January see what moves have been made. I don't advise "piggybacking" Scott. He will hold on to stock for years before it makes its move. I can't afford to tie money up for that long.
The Market has been pretty quiet for me. Today I decided to see what Scott Black has been up to. Scott runs Delphi Management out of Boston's Rowes Warf. Some of you may recognized Scott's name from Barron's round table. I read Barron's with a grain of salt. Some of these "superstar" analysts at the round table will make an incorrect prediction and then have the hubris not to even acknowledge their blooper the next time the "table" gathers. Don't get me started on Abbey Joseph Cohen.
I do like Scott Black. He is a Graham Dodd disciple, which is not a bad thing. Bottom line about Scott is that he is no dummy.
I am a little surprised to see that Scott's biggest holding is BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B. Basically Scott has Warren Buffett managing some money. Moving on, Scott's fund sold Coke, before its slide (good move) and bought Pfizer, Pier One, Cypress Semiconductor. All value plays, which is no surprise. Pier One, is one of Berkshire's big holdings too.
The fourth quarter is almost over so we will revisit the 13F filings in January see what moves have been made. I don't advise "piggybacking" Scott. He will hold on to stock for years before it makes its move. I can't afford to tie money up for that long.
Friday, December 24, 2004
12/24/2004 - Merry Christmas!
Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! I will be looking for some good investing ideas for 2005.
Cheers!
Jeff
Cheers!
Jeff
Thursday, December 23, 2004
12/23/2004 - Notes
I have been looking for ideas but have come up with nothing. I am tempted to wait until the New Year before making any new decisions. Why make more paperwork for the 2004 taxes? Really, I just can't come up with a good idea right now. So I am not going to do anything. Lets not force a trade. If a trade is not there don't go looking for entertainment in the Markets. I have learned that the hard way and I have to continually remind myself that is is OK to do nothing and stand aside.
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
12/22/2004 - I Want Coal for Xmas!
First, please let me know if you have any problems with my web page. I have been trying to make it easier to read.
OK, I have been looking for some ideas but can't really see anything going on out there. I have been thinking about one thing. Lets face it we are no longer in the "Internet Boom." That pretty obvious I know. We are however in an "Energy Boom." Energy stock IPOs have been coming off Wall Street with no great fanfare, which is how I like it. These boring little companies have been slowly moving north. Two companies in particular.
Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) and Foundation Coal Holdings Inc (FCL) are two recent IPOs that you could have bought below the offering price. EPD boasts a yield of 6.39% currently! These two stocks won't provide the excitement of an OSIP but then again I can do without that for now. I like these two companies not because of technical readings but because we are in an "Energy Boom" and I like the space they occupy.
I am going to keep on the lookout for more Energy related IPOs by big, well-known investment houses. It's not a sexy idea but if it makes me money, who cares?
OK, I have been looking for some ideas but can't really see anything going on out there. I have been thinking about one thing. Lets face it we are no longer in the "Internet Boom." That pretty obvious I know. We are however in an "Energy Boom." Energy stock IPOs have been coming off Wall Street with no great fanfare, which is how I like it. These boring little companies have been slowly moving north. Two companies in particular.
Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) and Foundation Coal Holdings Inc (FCL) are two recent IPOs that you could have bought below the offering price. EPD boasts a yield of 6.39% currently! These two stocks won't provide the excitement of an OSIP but then again I can do without that for now. I like these two companies not because of technical readings but because we are in an "Energy Boom" and I like the space they occupy.
I am going to keep on the lookout for more Energy related IPOs by big, well-known investment houses. It's not a sexy idea but if it makes me money, who cares?
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
What not to do.... A Tuesday Mourning QB
oops!
What a game! The Patriots finally made the front page of the Boston Globe (not the Red Sox). Too bad that the Pats had to lose to do so. You could see it happening in slow motion. One bad play here, a touch of "bad luck" there, a bad bounce over here, and there you have it. The Patriots lost their momentum and confidence. The Dolphins with 2 wins this season looked great. Anyone who did not follow that game would have guessed that the Patriots were 2-11 this season.
So why am I writing about this? Well, what can we learn from this Patriots loss? Here are a couple things:
1) Don't throw the ball when you don't have a target and your play is over.
2) Expect the unexpected.
3) You can't win all of them.
4) Realize when things are getting out of control. Stop and regroup.
Ron Borges, a writer for the Boston Globe, wrote it best.
"For one of the few times since Brady became New England's starting quarterback four years ago, he tried to do more than was wise. He tried to make a play when the wise thing would have been to cut his losses and live for the next one."
Sounds familiar. Huh?
Monday, December 20, 2004
12/20/2004 - Back to Work
Monday, and the Capital Markets are alive and well. I do not expect too much to go on this week. It should be quiet with the holidays and everything. I could be wrong.
My weekend was good. I did some holiday shopping and thought about the whole OSIP fiasco. An insidious issue it was. One thing I read over the weekend did give me some comfort though. I have been nibbling at Getting Started in Technical Analysis by Jack D. Schwager. I think it is a pretty good book. Basic, but helpful. Anyway, Schwager says that Druckenmiller was actually short the stock market before the 1987 "downdraft." He then changed his mind and went long the day before the crash! Can you believe it? Druckenmiller knew he was wrong and quickly changed his position, went short again and made some money. Who really knows what happened. I mean this guy was running big money. I thought it was hard to change directions that fast.
What did I get from this? Well, if you want to be in this business you have to expect uncertainty. You have to be disciplined and ready to move with the Market. Welcome aboard!
My weekend was good. I did some holiday shopping and thought about the whole OSIP fiasco. An insidious issue it was. One thing I read over the weekend did give me some comfort though. I have been nibbling at Getting Started in Technical Analysis by Jack D. Schwager. I think it is a pretty good book. Basic, but helpful. Anyway, Schwager says that Druckenmiller was actually short the stock market before the 1987 "downdraft." He then changed his mind and went long the day before the crash! Can you believe it? Druckenmiller knew he was wrong and quickly changed his position, went short again and made some money. Who really knows what happened. I mean this guy was running big money. I thought it was hard to change directions that fast.
What did I get from this? Well, if you want to be in this business you have to expect uncertainty. You have to be disciplined and ready to move with the Market. Welcome aboard!
Friday, December 17, 2004
12/17/2004 - OSIP UPDATE up 46%
You won't believe this one. Keep in mind that I sold OSIP yesterday. Well, I come into my office today, turn on the computer, check out my quotes and notice that OSIP is up $22.00. So it is trading around $69.00. My stomach fell about three feet. Needless to say I have a mix of feelings. The news that came out could have been bad, and the stock could have fell $22.00. So, you win some you lose some, but you keep on fighting.
What gets me is that this happened less than 24 hours after I sold. It is almost like a mean joke. So, I am not doing anything today. No matter what I do, I can't change what happened. I followed my plan and protected my capital. Time to move on. The fox is alive and well!
The day has ended and all is well. It is 4:38PM in Boston and I had the day to think about what happened. I just want to express what I was feeling because I almost did some stupid things. When I saw this event unfold today I wanted to stop time. I wanted to fix things so that I would win. These feelings are dangerous. They make you put on stupid trades, hoping for some kind of revenge. The best thing you can do is breath deeply and gather your compsure. Remind yourself that this is not a game for kicks and thrills. You can do serious damage if you are not careful. You have to live to fight another day.
What gets me is that this happened less than 24 hours after I sold. It is almost like a mean joke. So, I am not doing anything today. No matter what I do, I can't change what happened. I followed my plan and protected my capital. Time to move on. The fox is alive and well!
The day has ended and all is well. It is 4:38PM in Boston and I had the day to think about what happened. I just want to express what I was feeling because I almost did some stupid things. When I saw this event unfold today I wanted to stop time. I wanted to fix things so that I would win. These feelings are dangerous. They make you put on stupid trades, hoping for some kind of revenge. The best thing you can do is breath deeply and gather your compsure. Remind yourself that this is not a game for kicks and thrills. You can do serious damage if you are not careful. You have to live to fight another day.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
12/16/2004 - Stopped out of OSIP
Well, that was quick. I am out of OSIP. Sold at $47.53. As I said in my post last night, this stock trades on emotions and there is no floor here, (i.e. earnings, dividend, nada). So, I had a plan in place. I knew when to buy and I knew when to sell. I am out with a "businessman's loss." A calculated loss, if you will. I live to fight another day. Pretty glamorous, huh?
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
12/15/2004 - OSIP (BUY)
Well, some of my "groupies" have been wondering where I have been lately. I have been here, my hometown of Boston. I have been raking the Market for ideas and trying to figure out what to do next.
I have bought OSI pharmaceuticals. A drug/biotech company that has promising cancer drugs being developed. The stock has had a 52 week high of $98. and a low of about $28. The stock is trading at about $48. and change. I bought at $49.00.
Like all stocks, this stock moves on expectations. It has no earnings. It is trading on enthusiasm. So, don't let this one get away or it could be down in the 20s before you know it. I have a stop on at $47. but I may sell around $48. depending on the price action. Bank of Amerca has a price target of $75. So, hold on to your seats this could be a wild ride. Don't worry I have my finger on the seat ejection button.
I have bought OSI pharmaceuticals. A drug/biotech company that has promising cancer drugs being developed. The stock has had a 52 week high of $98. and a low of about $28. The stock is trading at about $48. and change. I bought at $49.00.
Like all stocks, this stock moves on expectations. It has no earnings. It is trading on enthusiasm. So, don't let this one get away or it could be down in the 20s before you know it. I have a stop on at $47. but I may sell around $48. depending on the price action. Bank of Amerca has a price target of $75. So, hold on to your seats this could be a wild ride. Don't worry I have my finger on the seat ejection button.
Friday, December 10, 2004
12/10/04 - Nuveen Senior Income Fund (NSL)
OK, I have been holding cash lately. Sold out of PIR the other day. I am getting hardly any interest for holding cash in my account. I came across an issue that pays about %6.34 a year, but pays interest on a monthly basis. Nuveen Senior Income Fund (NSL) is what I am talking about.
The fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to achieve a high level of current income, consistent with capital preservation. The Funds investment objective is a fundamental policy of the fund, meaning that it may be changed only by vote of a majority of the shareholders of the fund. The fund will invest primarily in adjustable rate U.S dollar-denominated secured Senior Loans.
Interest Rate Resets Can Mean More Stable Net Asset Value - Frequent rate resets will help eliminate much of the interest rate risk normally associated with fixed-income investing.
I know we all want to hit home runs, but there is nothing wrong with getting a few men on base either. I bought is at $9.22. I don't expect the price to move much (I hope).
The fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to achieve a high level of current income, consistent with capital preservation. The Funds investment objective is a fundamental policy of the fund, meaning that it may be changed only by vote of a majority of the shareholders of the fund. The fund will invest primarily in adjustable rate U.S dollar-denominated secured Senior Loans.
Interest Rate Resets Can Mean More Stable Net Asset Value - Frequent rate resets will help eliminate much of the interest rate risk normally associated with fixed-income investing.
I know we all want to hit home runs, but there is nothing wrong with getting a few men on base either. I bought is at $9.22. I don't expect the price to move much (I hope).
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
November Roundup
OK, November was a good month in general. The S&P 500 was up, I was up too, but not as much... I was up 3.44% the SP500 was up 7.14%. I am a little disappointed in the results but still hopeful. Oil/Energy stocks took a breather while Tech/Retail waxed.
You probably notice that things have been quiet here at Public Co$. Well, it is not that I have been sleeping. I just have not seen any good buying opportunities (for me). So, I will wait.
I still have EPD, PIR, which are looked at on a daily basis.
P.M. Notes
PIR - sold at $18.01
Why? A couple reasons: First, I bought the stock blindly after I read an article that Berkshire Hathaway bought a bunch. Not a good strategy. Secondly, the stock is in a trading range. Probably won't do much for a while. Lets hold the cash and wait.... Wait for a better opportunity with less risk.
You probably notice that things have been quiet here at Public Co$. Well, it is not that I have been sleeping. I just have not seen any good buying opportunities (for me). So, I will wait.
I still have EPD, PIR, which are looked at on a daily basis.
P.M. Notes
PIR - sold at $18.01
Why? A couple reasons: First, I bought the stock blindly after I read an article that Berkshire Hathaway bought a bunch. Not a good strategy. Secondly, the stock is in a trading range. Probably won't do much for a while. Lets hold the cash and wait.... Wait for a better opportunity with less risk.
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