I had a great Thanksgiving and I hope the same for you! I went to N.C. to visit my brother. We had a grand time. On the way I stopped at a hotel to rest. When I awoke, I did what comes naturally and turned on the TV. I got interested in a movie and had to watch the end. Searching for Bobby Fischer, came out in 1993. I wish I could find the screenplay online but no luck. I think the dialogue below is true for anyone who wishes to win. I recommend seeing the whole movie if you have not already!
Bruce: Do you know what it means to have "contempt" for your opponent?
Josh: No.
Bruce: It means to hate them. You have to hate them Josh, they hate you.
Josh: But I don't hate them.
Bruce: Well you'd better start.
AFL - I am reflecting on my AFL sale. I made a mistake. I looked at the news and not the stock action. Listen to the stock NOT the news. Should have held on...
Monday, November 29, 2004
Friday, November 19, 2004
11/19/2004 - Notes
It has been quiet for me on the investing front. I have not made any moves since my AFL sale. There have been some interesting opportunities out there but always missing one of my criteria (i.e. volume too low). Some good stocks rolling over too. To list a few: IBM, HD, AXP, BAC, C. Also, CL has moved south since my sell. B of A came out with a negative report saying there is a big restructuring charge on the horizon.
Still holding: PIR, EPD.
Still holding: PIR, EPD.
Monday, November 15, 2004
11/15/2004 - ???
A.M. NOTES
Well, AFL is up today for some reason. It was downgraded last Friday by Lehman, now the stock is up in early trading.
I think it is better to look at the end of day prices if you are in a swing trade. The hourly Market noise chop will turn you from using a daily chart to a day-trader. I think that is what I unconsciously did the other day. So, if you are making a buy decision based on a daily chart, you should make a sell decision based on a daily chart.
Well, AFL is up today for some reason. It was downgraded last Friday by Lehman, now the stock is up in early trading.
I think it is better to look at the end of day prices if you are in a swing trade. The hourly Market noise chop will turn you from using a daily chart to a day-trader. I think that is what I unconsciously did the other day. So, if you are making a buy decision based on a daily chart, you should make a sell decision based on a daily chart.
Friday, November 12, 2004
11/12/2004 AFL Downgraded by Lehman
AFL - Sold today, Lehman came out and downgraded the stock b/c of sales weakness. Got out with a small loss. I think it is better to stand aside and wait. No need to hold on to a stock with negative sentiment.
I mean, you want to keep your money moving forward, so to speak, like a football team's offense.
I mean, you want to keep your money moving forward, so to speak, like a football team's offense.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Musings - Buy Sell or Hold?
I have become concerned that I may be selling positions too early. I don't have my thoughts formulated so I am going to put down my thoughts and try to make sense of them after.
1. Most likely you will not be able to sell at the exact top of trend.
2. You don't want to give away profits either hoping to get more.
3. You will get faked out of some positions.
4. You are trying to make money (against some very smart people and computers!).
5. Are you following your rules?
6. Go back and go over your plan!
I think it is important to remember that you cannot beat yourself up if you are making an effort to learn and fine tune your skills. Investing is not an easy task and there will be ups and downs. I think of what Gekko said to Bud Fox in the movie Wall Street:
GEKKO - "You're not as smart as I thought you were, Buddy boy, Listen hard -- don't count on Graham and Dodd to make you a fortune, everybody in the market knows the theory, ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep -- and the sheep get slaughtered. I been in the business since '69. Most of these high paid MBAs from Harvard never make it. You need a system, discipline, good people, no deal junkies, no toreadores, the deal flow burns most people out by 35. Give me PSHs -- poor, smart and hungry. And no feelings. You win some, you lose some but you keep on fighting, and if you need a friend, get a dog, it's trench warfare out there sport... (eyeing the surroundings) and in here too. I got twenty other brokers out there, analyzing Charts. I don't need another one. Talk to you sometime..."
P.M. NOTES
I guess I have to be more disciplined on my sells. I have to go over my plan and stick to it. I have to develop my sell discipline!!!
1. Most likely you will not be able to sell at the exact top of trend.
2. You don't want to give away profits either hoping to get more.
3. You will get faked out of some positions.
4. You are trying to make money (against some very smart people and computers!).
5. Are you following your rules?
6. Go back and go over your plan!
I think it is important to remember that you cannot beat yourself up if you are making an effort to learn and fine tune your skills. Investing is not an easy task and there will be ups and downs. I think of what Gekko said to Bud Fox in the movie Wall Street:
GEKKO - "You're not as smart as I thought you were, Buddy boy, Listen hard -- don't count on Graham and Dodd to make you a fortune, everybody in the market knows the theory, ever wonder why fund managers can't beat the S&P 500? 'Cause they're sheep -- and the sheep get slaughtered. I been in the business since '69. Most of these high paid MBAs from Harvard never make it. You need a system, discipline, good people, no deal junkies, no toreadores, the deal flow burns most people out by 35. Give me PSHs -- poor, smart and hungry. And no feelings. You win some, you lose some but you keep on fighting, and if you need a friend, get a dog, it's trench warfare out there sport... (eyeing the surroundings) and in here too. I got twenty other brokers out there, analyzing Charts. I don't need another one. Talk to you sometime..."
P.M. NOTES
I guess I have to be more disciplined on my sells. I have to go over my plan and stick to it. I have to develop my sell discipline!!!
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
11/10/2004 - Notes
It has been some time since my last update. I do have a few things that I would like to discuss.
1. I sold MYG a week back with a profit. If you go back and read my blog you see my reasons. What is wrong here? A large part of my trading principles are not based on feeling or what I think could happen. I sold MYG at a profit, which is great. However, MYG is up to $20.10 now. Obviously the market did not care what I thought. Don't tell the market what should happen. Listen to it and act within your plan.
2. CL - SOLD today 11/10/2004. My reason is that the stock is not acting with any force. I held the stock for 21 days and it went up a bit, now it is in a range. I got out with a good profit. I don't want to hold and trades that are in a range. They should be trending. After 21 days, I want that trend to take hold.
3. AFL - BOT 11/08/2004. This stock fit my criteria for the purchase. Lets let is ride and see where it takes us. Stops are in place. Looks like up trend in place.
1. I sold MYG a week back with a profit. If you go back and read my blog you see my reasons. What is wrong here? A large part of my trading principles are not based on feeling or what I think could happen. I sold MYG at a profit, which is great. However, MYG is up to $20.10 now. Obviously the market did not care what I thought. Don't tell the market what should happen. Listen to it and act within your plan.
2. CL - SOLD today 11/10/2004. My reason is that the stock is not acting with any force. I held the stock for 21 days and it went up a bit, now it is in a range. I got out with a good profit. I don't want to hold and trades that are in a range. They should be trending. After 21 days, I want that trend to take hold.
3. AFL - BOT 11/08/2004. This stock fit my criteria for the purchase. Lets let is ride and see where it takes us. Stops are in place. Looks like up trend in place.
Friday, November 05, 2004
11/05/2004 - Notes
What a bullish week we had! Viva Bush! Lets hope things continue this way for while.
CL - Stock had a pretty good week. The stock was oversold when I bought so it is coming back a little. The tricky part is selling. Like I said earlier, I want to see a 5 in the stock price. The market will tell me when to sell, so keeping listening. Give it some room to go.
EPD - Paid it nice dividend and is trending up! Keep listening.
PIR - Did nada today. Will be paying a div soon. I may dump this one. I bought it following what other investors are doing. Not a good strategy. I will look at it again on Monday.
CL - Stock had a pretty good week. The stock was oversold when I bought so it is coming back a little. The tricky part is selling. Like I said earlier, I want to see a 5 in the stock price. The market will tell me when to sell, so keeping listening. Give it some room to go.
EPD - Paid it nice dividend and is trending up! Keep listening.
PIR - Did nada today. Will be paying a div soon. I may dump this one. I bought it following what other investors are doing. Not a good strategy. I will look at it again on Monday.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
11/04/2004 - Notes
It has been some time since my last update. The Market was not really moving pre-election jitters. Since Bush won the election, the Market has done well. A nice change of pace for us investors. The month of October was OK for me. The S&P SPDRs returned 2.88% and I returned .085%. I attribute my anemic performance to Merck. I own it. If you are read the business section in the newspaper, you know what happened. Anyway, Merck is why I trailed the S&P 500. So, where do we stand now?
EPD - $23.96 - slight trend up.
PIR - $18.64 - slight trend up. Still in a range though.
CL - $46.52 - Too early to tell. Up but down by about the same in after hours. I want to see this stock reach the low 50s soon. That is my target now.
EPD - $23.96 - slight trend up.
PIR - $18.64 - slight trend up. Still in a range though.
CL - $46.52 - Too early to tell. Up but down by about the same in after hours. I want to see this stock reach the low 50s soon. That is my target now.
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