real estate distractions

I have been doing my real job lately, which is real estate in Boston. I have been flat out and have not been able to really follow the markets closely (unfortunately). I hope to get back to it soon.

I am still holding AMAT. You know, the semiconductor cap stocks are very volatile. I don't want to be shaken out of the stock too soon.

COVERED BA - SOLD AA - BOT AMAT

Yesterday I did a lot of activity. I covered my BA at $69.60. I sold AA at $29.33. I bought AMAT at $20.49.

BA - was not acting like a short anymore.
AA - I got in on the early sell-off but there is now negative sentement attached to this stock, too much uncertainty.
AMAT - Exploded with volume and price. Will the cycle start already. If it does I don't want to be left behind. I have been faked out before but I am not giving up!!!

BA and AA

BA had an up day. I am not surprised, the 50 day EMA is a pretty strong resistence line. I still have BA open.

AA did come off its AM lows. I bought early and decided to hold for now.

AA update

After writing my thoughts down this AM I realized that this blip in AA's earnings was not commodity based and that the company can turn things around. I felt the sell off was fear based. I did buy AA at $28.46.

AA missed earnings , 11000K - wow!

We all know that AA missed earnings yesterday. Instinctively I thought about shorting the stock. After reading the news I am leery about that idea. If aluminum prices were going down then I would be more likely to short. However, this is company specific. Too much uncertainty here. The stock will probably go sideways or back up again. Anyway, I do not have enough conviction to do anything now.

BA had another down day. I am holding my short position on this one still. Yesterday the stock closed below the 50 day EMA, a major support area.

Semiconductors have been moving up at a pretty fast clip. I am sniffing around AMAT. I have been burned on this industry in the last couple years. The cycle is not as well defined as it has been in the past.

CAT continued it run. Lets continue watching for any weakness.

BA

Last week BA bounced on its 50 day EMA. This week it will be key to see if the stock breaks below its 50 day EMA and even the $68 mark, which holds major support.

I am not holding any other positions now.

"because thats where the money was..."

I was thinking the other day about Willie Sutton, who started robbing banks in the late 1920s. You know who he is. Known for his famous quote about why he robbed banks - "because that's where the money is."

He is also know for another nice quote, "You can't rob a bank on charm and personality."

Now you are asking, how does this relate to speculating? Well, I was kicking the idea around that what I do and what Willie does is kind of the same. Someone asks me, "why did you pick that stock?" The answer - "because it is going up." Hey, if I make money on it, who cares why it is going up. The stock itself may not know why it is going up until later. If you wait to find all the answers you are too late. By that time, the stock will be about ready to roll over and head south.

KISS - you know what it means

• You buy a stock expecting it to go up or down.
• Keep in mind, as a "trend follower," you will not catch the very beginning or end of the trend.
• Again, you buy.
• After 4 or 5 days the stock does not move up.
• What should you do?

Well, remember, you are a trend follower. Are you in a trend? Does not sound like it if the stock has not moved up. I have gotten killed because I bought and the trend did not materialize or continue. After 4 or 5 days you should know if you are right or wrong. Answer: I would sell.

Cat too?

Well, it is no secret. Techs are doing great, particularly the semiconductor stocks. Conglomerates are weak for two days in a row now. caterpillar is also showing some weakness. This stock cannot move past the $60 mark. Today is showed some real lack of conviction. The Bulls may be giving up on this one too! Now I am not shorting this one but my feeling is that CAT will start moving down if it can't make a strong move above $60 in the next couple trading sessions.

BA came back a little this afternoon but ended lower for the day. This stock should bleed for a while longer!

Short BA

Okay, BA has been humming, cooking, blazing, etc. - BOA came out with a downgrade today to Neutral. I don't really follow these upgrade/downgrades, but if you have a company trading near a 52 week high and you start getting negative vibes, maybe it is a good idea to take some action. This could be an inflection point on the chart of BA.

So I shorted BA at $69.86.

Don't be Fooled

Today turned out to be pretty good in the end. I was just looking over some charts and many stocks bounced back this afternoon. My feeling is that investors were buying across the board. Tomorrow will be a key day for us to see if there is any follow through.

and they're off!

The New Year is fresh with prognosticators telling us what is going to happen. Lucky for them few of them put their money where their mouth is (or pen). It is easy for a reporter to give us some prediction about what may happen this year. We can all make predictions. We can all make guesses.

We make our money by not listening to the papers or news. We make our money by listening to the Market.