3/29/2005 - Dr. Alex Elder Webnar - Good Time!

DJIA 3/29/2005

I participated in a webnar with Dr. Alexander Elder today. I enjoyed it very much. Actually, this was my first webnar ever. The above chart shows the weekly graph of the DJIA, showing a Bearish Divergence! Needless to say, Dr. Elder is bearish now. I believe John Murphy is bearish too. I guess they are seeing the same things.

Here is how Elder views markets now:
Oil - Bullish long-term (start buying oil if it hits $50. on the next dip)
Interest Rates - going up
US Dollar - going up
Euro - going down
Stock Market - going down
housing stocks - short

Books Elder recommended:
Elder's Books
Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes


I picked up some Genworth (GNW) at $26.78. I would like to see the stock get up to its 20 day EMA. The stock still has some room to move.

03/25/2005 - Genworth

GNW 3/25/2005

Genworth, GE spinoff of their insurance group. They did a secondary offering at $26.50 last week.

03/22/2005 - Pizza anyone?

03/22/2005 - DPZ

Just an idea. Dominos Pizza is forming a cup-handle pattern. Bain Capital has a bunch of shares that they are going to have to unload. The stock does not have big volume, which is a problem. I can't see Bain wanting to hold on to this stock Long-term.

03/18/2005 - PIR ??? What's the rush?

03/18/2005 - PIR

Pier 1 (PIR) is getting a lot of press these days. I don't know if you have noticed. The NYT had an article about how PIR pulled their ad campaign last season and now they are revamping the stores to make them less cluttered. A new ad campaign will be introduced too.

Looks like the institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The stock is down over the last couple of days. I would not take this stock seriously until it starts trading over $19.97. It could make a quick move if it does hit that area.

It is a make or break time for PIR. They have had more excuses for their bad perfomance over the last year. I would think that management's credibility is starting to wear and tire the analysts and investors. Maybe the business model does not work anymore. Did anyone think of that? I mean, can't you buy the same crap at a Target or Wal-Mart? - and for less?

03/16/2005 - MIT discussion group

Good morning. Last week I told you that I was going to a discussion over at MIT concerning technical analysis. Specifically, Joseph E. Majocha was going to speak about his website Selective Chartists.

In general I thought Joe had some good stuff to say. I give him credit for getting up in front of, what I thought were, some pretty confident and cocky people. There was one older man named Herb who was basically giving Joe a tough time. One time he asked Joe where Martha Stewart would have sold. Joe did not answer but I could not restrain myself. I chirped out, "the top!"

The one thing that I got from this meeting was that there is no magic bullet. We all have the same tools. We may interpret information differently, which is what separates those who make money from those who don't.

The other point that Joe said, but went unnoticed, was that he cut his losses quickly. Preserve your capital and get another chance to make money. Let's face, not all trades will be winners.

03/15/2005 - HAWK

Petrohawk Energy Corp. 3/15/2005

This company looks interesting. It reminds me of a company you would see in IBD where there is no volume for a point in time and then the institutions discover it. It looks like there are some buyser here. I also see the 27% of the company is still owned by insiders. Finished up today.

03/12/2005 - The Coming Week

I am excited for next Tuesday (the 15th). MIT is hosting a discussion on technical analysis. I will let you know how it goes.

I have recently sold EPD and FCL. I was very happy with the results. FCL sold with a 25.5% gain and EPD with a 20% gain. Both stocks were held less than a year. Energy picks are getting difficult. Many issues have moved up quite a bit over the last year. You don't want to get caught playing the "greater fool" game. I don't anyway.

I have scaled back on my trades. GM catches my eye. I would not want to catch a falling knife but this stock has potential to start moving up again.

03/10/2005 - EPD sold for 25.5% gain

OK, you guessed by the title of today's posting that I sold EPD at $26.50. I bought the stock at $20.29, 278 days ago. I am pleased with the return. The stock seems to have stalled. They keep fooling around with their capital structure which worries me. They may know what they are doing but I don't.

03/09/2005 - iPod Stock

I received a call the other day from an investment advisor pitching me reverse convertible bonds for Apple Computer. Basically, I would receive a 12% coupon and get my principle back if AAPL stock stays above a certain price. If the price falls however, I receive a stated number of shares. That is where I could get killed. I knew I did not like the idea but I said I would call the guy back later.

I called the guy back and told him I didn't like the idea. I mean AAPL has been going up for the last couple years. The only way I see this stock going up or even keeping its value is if the company comes out with a great new product. I am surprised that the investment advisor would try to pitch such a crazy idea. I could be wrong on this one but I am willing to take that chance. I could have used his advice to buy the stock when it was at $12!

03/07/2005 - The Rector of Justin

I try to read other books than those about finance. I am just finishing up The Rector of Justin, a great book by Louis Auchincloss. Mr. Auchincloss is a self acclaimed "hack" as a lawyer but a fabulous writer. The Rector of Justin is about an all boys prep school, thirty miles west of Boston. I think the book is loosely based on the Groton School in Groton Mass and the Rev. Peabody. The book takes place in the 1940s. Great book. One quote from the book that I thought was funny was:

"Yes, greatness of the private school, Brian, is not that it produces geniuses - they grow anyway, and can't be made - but that it can sometimes turn a third-rate student into a second-rate one."

I find it funny because I went to an all boys private school (that competed with Groton in athletics) and I find the quote to be pretty much true. Ha hah hah!

03/04/2005 - FCL Sold

I sold Foundation Coal today at $26.81. I bought this stock at $22.37 for a 20% increase over a 78 day holding period. I like it.

03/03/2005 - Oil and Coal

Hello and thank you for joining me again. It has been a while since I last updated my blog. The reason is the confluence of being away and also not really having anything germane to say about the market.

OK, February was a pretty good month for me but not for the S&P 500 Index Fund (SPY). The SPY returned -0.20%. I am happy to say that I was up about 12% for the month of February. I attribute that gain all to energy stocks in my portfolio. Exxon, Petrochina, Foundation Coal and Enterprise Products have all performed well in February. These companies are in natural gas, oil and coal businesses. As I said earlier, I am not going to toy around too much with these holding now.

I still have some cash to invest so I will be looking for some ideas.

Glad to be back!