Happy New Year! 2006!

I am looking forward to a challenging and exciting investing experience this 2006! My New Years Resolution to you is to make sure that I stay on top of my game and give you some good investing ideas for 2006. Remember, I am starting out with $50K. I already made one losing decision by buying CAG and selling at a small loss. I am out of that and have no holdings now. We are going to have other losers in 2006 I am sure! The important concept is to make sure that our losers are small and our winners our huge!

So, to you and yours - Happy New Year! Lets make some $$$$$$$ !!!!!!

Jeff

Last Day of Trading for 2005!

DOW 30

So today was the last trading day of 2005! I was pretty much removed from the market today. I was over at Wal Mart buy some tee shirts for 2006! I noticed a few things today.

AIG - hit resistance at $69
CAT - hit resistance at $60
GM - Bouncing off support at $18. I would not feel comfortable owning thing one. I know there are too many problems. Will be very erratic!
JNJ - hit support at $60.
KO - I actually sold this a couple weeks back. I had a few shares from a gift a long time ago (like 13 years). Anyway, the 1980's and 1990's. KO is facing great competition and their management is weak. Lets move the money into something with better chances.
BANKS - JPM and C - hit resistance too.

Misc.
RTN - Hitting new area highs. Keep an eye on this one. Lets look for any signals of a short play.

My Xmas Present - Siri

I received Sirius Radio for Xmas! It is a gift that I would have not bought myself but I really am enjoying it! Great selection of music and no annoying ads! It makes listening to the "radio" enjoyable.

I like it so much that I was tempted to buy the stock. Remember one of those axioms, " it may be a good company but not a good stock." Something like that. Looking at the chart I see that $8 mark is pretty meaningful. If the stock moves above that mark with some power, it may be worth buying into. Otherwise, it could flounder a bit.

Slow Days

So, I did sell CAG yesterday. I really did not have a choice. The market is waiting for more info about how CAG is going to turn things around. I had no choice.

I am keeping my eye on a few stocks though - HNZ, CMCSA, RSH. These stocks look interesting in that something could change and a true could start.

as of 12/27/2005

CAG

AM

Okay, I am getting concerned with CAG. If there is more weakness in the stock today I will have to sell. The idea is to protect your capital and let profits ride. My feeling is that there may be too much uncertainty in the stock now. The market was hoping for more from the CEO last week and they did not get what they wanted. March is when more detailed info will come out. This could be a problem!

UPDATE
CAG was sold today at $20.26. I would rather step aside and wait for the CEO to get a plan together and join in when the others do. The market was expecting more than they got from the new vision.

Note: Bought at $20.89.

Merry Christmas from me and one of Santa's Helpers at Public Co$ !

Slow day CAG is held

A slow day, I am sure most of the heavy hitters packed it up and went home until 2006. I am still holding CAG even though it dropped below my stop target. First, with such light trading I did not think this was a great day to sell. Also, this stock had major support at the $20.30 mark.

As time moves ahead and this stock is still sluggish, I won't waste any time selling it. I must say that I was expecting a pop in the stock that has not occurred.

Hard Day for CAG

CAG had its analysts quarterly earnings report today. There was a sell off but the stock is still being held. If the stock goes below $20.47, then I will sell.

WFR - oh that hurts - like CAG

Did you see MEMC today, up $1 on the open! Yesterday I sold the sucker. You really have respect the markets. It can drive you crazy if you let it. Remember, this is a huge learning process and admission is expensive!

I bought CAG today at $20.89. Please see my trade portfolio for all my action. I am starting my 2006 concept before the New Year! Money never sleeps.

Oops on WFR

I sold WFR this AM. You know, that really irked me. I went into MCD and made a pretty good trade. I knew what I was doing and liked the set up on MCD. Made some money and then went into WFR. I did think the stock could shoot up but I think was really rolling the dice. I sold at a loss and I feel stupid that I rolled the dice like a fool. No excuses...

TRADES FOR 2006

as of 12/23/2005

I keep forgetting

Who said investing was easy. Right when you think you are learning, you start forgetting. In search of the Holy Grail, as some would call it, you forget what "works." Now, what "works" for me is different than what "works" for you.

Remember -
1) Be Patient
2) Don't Get Fancy
3) There is no such thing as a perfect trade or investment (you make money or lose money)
4) Keep an open mind

Right now, I do not have any trade ideas. I have my eyes open.

UTX IS STALLING

Looking at todays close of UTX does not make me bullish. Is it time for UTX to rest after its huge run up? The odds say YES!

I thought so - DPZ has a large stone tied to it.

Just for S and Gs I went to an Insider Trading website to see if Dominos was was being dumped by the VCs. Take a look for yourself. I would wait until you see DPZ trade over $25 for a few days before buying. There is a lot of overhead supply and I am not privy to Bain's trading book so I don't know what their plans are. You may want to stay the hell away for a while.

Flat for the day

I guess many are waiting for the Fed to meet and do what they are expected to do. MEMC moved up a bit today. I am still long that one.

In other ratings moves, Morgan Stanley upgraded United Technologies (UTX) to overweight from equal-weight, as the broker believes the company isn't getting enough attention for its aerospace upcycle. United Technologies was higher by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $55.55. OK, I don't understand this comment - I mean take a look at the chart of UTX. The stock has moved from about $50 to $56. The stock seemed to getting attention to me. The stock did move through major resistance and continues to move up.

A Tough Week!

"We're going nowhere fast because we don't have a lot of meaningful news," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "We've been left to trade on interest rates and crude oil, both of which have been very volatile."

Traders are now looking ahead to Tuesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to bump up fed funds by another quarter-point to 4.25%.

My Thoughts

I have to agree. I bought some MEMC (WFR) at $24.15 and saw the stock head south pretty fast after that! I still own it though. The word is that demand for the chips is here. However, there is a silicon shortage, which MEMC can produce. So the stock should go up. See chart here. I feel the buyers are still around for this stock. This past week was pretty volitile but I feel that was due to Intel coming out with news and the market unsure of what to expect. If there is weakness in the coming week, MEMC could be done for a while. Time will tell.

I bought some MCD last week at $34.14 and sold at $34.99. MCD is have a hard time getting past the $35 mark. I like their Chipolte IPO but I don't want to hang around just for that. I am waiting to see if this stock can trade over the $35 area on good volume.

The New Format Is Here In 2006

For those of you who read my blog, I thank you and hope I might have a couple interesting things for you to read. Also, for the year of 2006, I am going to keep track of a portfolio that starts with $50K. I am not saying whether the money is real or fake, I will let you decide. I will also disclose all my "moves" and let you see my performance and diary notes on a timely basis. I can't wait to begin!!!

Price Resistance -

Looking at a few charts and it is quick noticable how stocks will hit resistance at round numbers. For example:

Dominos = $25 - I think it is Bain Capital selling at that level.
AIG - $70
AXP - $53
BA - $70
CAT - $60
C - $50
GE - $37
HPQ - $30
IBM - $90

Anyway, I think you get the point. I never realized that these price points were so strong. Something to think about when you are about to buy or sell.

the Semiconductors

Much has been said about the semiconductor and the shortage in silicon for the wafers, I guess we are waiting for Intel to come out and give us some news today. I am waiting for the semiconductor stocks to take off and not look back. I remember when the cycle were so crisp and clean that you could just buy and hold until the cycle was over. Now, there are a lot of false starts it seems.

Remember: Bulls live above the 200-day moving average while bears live below it.

Cramer and the financials aka banks

Last night I started to watch Mad Money and Cramer started out with a lecture on buying the financials or buying one good one. I had to shut off the TV because I have been watching the financials (JPM and C) go up for the last couple weeks! Come on Cramer! We knew about this a month ago!

Anywho, Cramer has to do a TV show and talk about something.

Also, only 15-20% of stock actually will trend. Something to think about when you are holding onto that stock that you hope will go to the moon. Should you sell?

Flying at 30,000 feet

It is hard trying to figure out what is happening with a market or stock - I think. One thing that I find helpful is not getting to caught up in the moment. You really have to balance the big picture with the small picture. I think it is helpful to remind yourself to step back to a different focal point.

Musings, ramblings and thoughts...

I was thinking yesterday about the effects of speculating on the human mind. Speculating can take an emotional toll on the human due to the fact that the human can go back at a point in time to see how they would have performed if they had only held on to their stock. They make a decision to never let that happen again. So, they hold on to too long and get killed the next time. The idea is simple. Take money out of the markets. Let your winners fly and kill your losers - fast. This is a messy business and if you are concerned that your accountant will wonder why all the trades then you are doing it for the wrong reasons.

BA

BA, I thought was a good short idea but as time moves forward, I am not too sure. In other words, I don't know. I think that is a good reason to step aside and wait until the picture is more clear.

BA continued down. Maybe the picture is more clear. INTC is moving up still, although just by a small amount.

MSFT

So MSFT may buy some of AOL. I can't say that I am surprised at the idea since the stock has been moving up a few weeks prior. I was actually thinking that there was something going on - I did not know what though.

INTC looks nice now too. Are they making a deal with AAPL? What is the chart saying?

shift?

Today was a hard day in the market. There are some trends that I was looking at that have "blipped." Specifically, I am talking about WMT and HPQ. Tomorrow will be an interesting day. I would expect the market to be up but if not, the market is very concerned with the consumer confidence index and the employment rate issues. I think much of HPQ's loss today was due to Lexmark's poor performance. My gut feel is that HPQ is taking business from Lexmark and HPQ will continue its turnaround. I will let the market decide that though.

Volume

You know, I was thinking how these books on trading tell you how to look for big volume as a signal to buy or sell. I agree with them but I do not think it is that easy. Look, these institutions are smart. They don't want to put up a big flag and say, "hey look, we are buying (or selling)." No, they want to be quiet. So, don't think that volume is a big telltale sign. You have to focus on price and the close on the day.

This is fun! New Title!

Speculate : to assume a business risk in hope of gain; especially : to buy or sell in expectation of profiting from market fluctuations.

You may have noticed that I changed the title name of my blog. I must admit that it took me many years to accept the word "speculate" into my realm of thinking. I was bought up to "invest!" It seems like people feel better if they lose money on an "investment" opposed to a "speculation." Investing means you put money into something and ride out the ups and downs. This includes riding something into the ground. Investing is associated with being "responsible" and "mature." I guess that is a better way to lose money.

After about sixteen years of watching the market and "investing," I am not comfortable making a decision and putting it on autopilot. No, I want to make money! I am not too proud to change my mind if the market changes its mind about a company. Do you think a little guy like me is going to argue with the institutions out there?! No way!

10/20/2005 - WMT strong - shoot

OK - it hurts to be a speculator sometimes. I am missing out on some upward thrusts of WMT since I sold last week. F*&%!. Well, what can I learn from the transaction? First, I have to stop using intraday day data to make decisions when I am using daily close info. If you think about it, the institutions are the one that come in at the end of the day.

10/13/2005 - WMT weak

I thought WMT was going to spike up after the press said that it was undervalued and could go to the 60s this year. Well, the stock did get a bounce but after today I am not too sure that this puppy is going to move like we want. Better to step aside and wait for a clear picture to emerge.

10/10/2005 - Dis - What happened?

Dis 10/10/2005

This one did not work out. I thought it was a good trade but as you can see it did not have enough momentun to push it up. Well, it is not my falt that it is did not go up. It would be my fault if I did not do the proper thing and sell.

Discretionary Vs. Mechanical trading. Which do you like?

Cut losses stupid!

09/30/2005 - Dis looks good!

dis 9/30/05

I have been keeping and eye on the market - as usual, and I saw some stocks that looked pretty interesting. MSFT, INTC, RTN and DIS. DIS looked pretty attractive to me and I purchased some shares today at $24.13. I am hoping a trend is in place and that we can ride this all next week!

09/22/2005 - Down Down Down

Looking at the charts of the Dow I see a lot of selling going on! I thought Wall Street expected the 25 basis pt rate hike. Maybe Mr. G is trying to nip this housing boom in the bud. True oil is at $67/barrel and we have another hurricane coming to the US.

I am still in oil but I have raised cash recently. Keeping an eye on stocks to REBOUND! They are still going down now!

09/21/2005 - sold C

I sold C today. I was caught between feelings of sell or hold. Unfortunately the market does not care if you are undecided or don't know what you are doing. It will slam you no matter what. On one hand Citi is trying to turn itself around. However, rates are rising, which is a negative for banks. I sold and took a small profit.

9/20/2005 - Wal-Mart

WMT 9/20/2005

This chart caught my eye. Too early to enter into a trade but it is beaten down and will most likely bounce back, unless mgmt is really sleeping. Lets wait for the knife to land before we grab it!

09/19/2005 - C

Citi 9/19/2005

This trade is working out OK. You may recall that I bought Citi a couple weeks back but sold out b/c it did not look like it was going to work out. Well, I bought it back and this time it worked. The one thing that I have learned is to cut losses and let profits ride. So, I will let C move up on its own until it tells me that it is tired and rolls over and goes back to bed.

09/09/2005 - This stock is a waste

of time. CAFE is down $0.93 this morning. Everyday there is a news blurb about this company. Today, the NASDAQ is going to delist the shares and warrants. Also, there is so much banter on the message board that my head is spinning. OK, here is probably what was going on with the recent increase in the stock price. The shorts knew that the stock was going to be delisted so they had to buy back shares to cover their positions. This action would drive the stock up. Just an idea.

09/07/2005 - CAFE - What?

I hate to say this but I bought some CAFE today. You know, that stock that went from $3 to $15 and then was halted for a couple weeks. It started trading and went down to $3 again. This AM is started to move again and it showed some strength! I did pick some up at $3.28 and SOLD at $3.70. It was actually a stupid move. Lucky to make money on that one.

Bought back into Citigroup again. I bought at $44.19. Stock is showing strength again. Hoping the Fed keeps rates the same and that the new CEO makes profitable changes. Lets see!?

What else happened?
oil (-$1.68 to $65.03/bbl)

With respect to individual equities, there were notable upgrades today for three Dow components that have lent a measure of support to the broader market... To that end, McDonald's (MCD 33.27 +0.61) went to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns, while Piper Jaffray upped JP Morgan (JPM 34.79 +0.22) to Outperform from Market Perform and UBS upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.55 +0.30) to Buy from Neutral...

1-week
Top Performer

DJ US Heavy Construction Index (CON)

Last: 244.11
Percent Change: -0.27%

1-month
Top Performer

DJ US Consumer Electronics Index (CSE)

Last: 696.41
Percent Change: -0.99%

6 month
Top Performer

DJ US Water Index (WAT)

Last: 754.02
Percent Change: 0.73%

YTD
Top Performer

DJ US Coal Index (COA)

Last: 265.29
Percent Change: 0.74%

09/06/2005 - Recaps - - -

Host America (CAFE) has started to trade again as of last week. You may have read some commentary in my past postings. Well, all is not well at CAFE. The stock is trading at about $3 down from the mid-teens. I am grateful that I did not buy any hoping for the greater fool theory to work out for me.


CAFE


Dominos Pizza has trading down since I sold too. I was surprised that the stock dod not move when it had great earnings out last quarter. I did not to wait to find out what the real story was about while holding on to the shares.

I hope all had a great summer. I know I did and I am sorry to see the summer sky change to autumn. I was lucky to get to Pocasset, Cape Cod a few time and do some fishing. My total catch YTD is three Blues and one Striper. I hope to get out a couple more times while the fish are starting their migration to North Carolina.

08/25/2005 - Shoot!

Well, --- I got out of Citigroup. I thought we were onto something here. The stock picked it head up last week and showed some strength. This week, not so. Looks like investors are not sure about the new leader at C. We all know how the Market hates uncertainty. True, change is sometimes good but on Wall Street, investors want to get a good idea about the direction a company will take. That is where we are now. I am not in the "hoping" business. I sold with a small loss and will go in again if things look better.

08/16/2005 - What I think now.

OK, DPZ is showing weakness. I sold my position. It may be basing but I have a 25% gain and will lock into that now.

MOT id showing weakness. I sold my position for a small gain. 22$ a share was a magic number for that company. The stock had a nice run up the prior weeks. Can't go like that forever.

C, I like this company and bought at $43.73. Stock is showing some good strength the past few days.

08/10/2005 - Citigroup and DPZ

C
Citigroup has hit a major support point. It will be interesting to see what happens here. If C goes any lower new support will be established. I would like to see the stock pick its head up and pop a few points. I am keeping an eye on this one.



DPZ

So what do you think will happen to DPZ? The stock had great earnings last qtr yet the Street did not reward it at all. I know, disappointing. I think the Street is waiting to see what mgmt has up its sleeve to keep earnings going. I know Bain Capital probably went in and has expanded the margins the best they could by tweaking the technology and maybe negotiating with suppliers. We have to see how DPZ comes up with new ideas to create more sales. Will they start serving breakfast in bed? Will they make hot dogs and cheese burgers? Beats me?

08/04/2005

08/03/2005 - You gotta love this Market!

The one thing that you can count on is that you can never figure out how the Market will react, at least I can't. What am I talking about? Lets talk about two live examples, DPZ and MOT.

DPZ came out with great earnings for the last qtr and what did the stock do? Went down. On the other hand, analysts are telling us that MOT is fairly valued at $21., yet the stock keeps going up.

You can't do anything about it but you have to be open minded to succeed in the Market.

From the Yahoo Message Board, a chap wrote:

They guided down on the full year. With the new regulations of FD (Full Disclosure), the Street reacts more to guidance then quarterly results. Prior to FD, the quarterly results drove price increases and guidance was the extra push, assuming that it was positive. If it was neutral, the Street knew that it would have access to feret out results during the active quarter. That's all changed now.

Makes sense to me. The company said they will have earnings of 13-15%. The PE is at 25. Could be price a little high. Lets see what happend tmwr!

08/02/2005 - DPZ

08/02/2005

You may remember my posting about DPZ in April. The stock has had a nice move up so far. It is up about 25% since I mentioned it. I think this stock is forming a base now. I do not want to make any quick moves but I am keeping and eye on DPZ. Is it basing or losing steam?

08/01/2005 - OTEX - strength?

08/01/2005

OTEX, stock is showing strength. Too early to tell how much strength there is though. Keeping an eye on this one though. Sell poiunt on this would be at about $11.65.

MOT seems to be doing OK after BOA's downgrade. The stock was up $.34 today. BOA really did not say anything. They must have had a deadline to publish a report and they could not come up with anything to say.

07/29/2005 - Did someone just flip the lights?

You know when you are at a bar and the manager flips the lights off and on to signal last call.?. I am wondering if Bank of America is pulling this event with MOT. Now, in the bar people do not all rush out the door. Some people stick around and finish their drinks. Still, others belly-up to the bar and order another drink.

I have never really witnessed and upgrade or downgrade affect a stock - long term. Plus, the big guys are buying MOT - they move the stock and they have their own analysts. So, the BOA downgrade may take a little wind out of its sails but I don't THINK it should destroy the beautiful uptrend that we are seeing.

I hope...

07/28/2005 - MOT - All aboard!

07/28/2005

I was looking at the chart of MOT last night and it caught my eye. Also, from all that I have been reading MOT is a Wall Street darling. The wagon is already moving but I think it may still have some momentum. I like that fact the MOT is developing new technologies that nobody really knows about. In other words, there is a pie in the sky mentality out there. So that should be worth a couple more layers of froth. All aboard!

07/27/2005 - A couple hits...

07/27/2005

Well, it is summer time in Boston and you know what that means. It's hot and humid and hazy. When that type of weather hits the town I like to escape to Cape Cod and take respite from the oppressive heat. I went down last night and tried a few casts behind Bassetts Island. Not much luck though, a couple hits. They looked like stripers. I was using surface lures and really going for Blue Fish. The tides was not with us either. Better luck next time.

07/24/2005 - I thought so...

So the SEC has halted the trading of CAFE. I am not really surprised. You read my post a week back? It just seems strange that CAFE could buy this company called GlobalNet that has this great technology that can save companies huge amounts of money on their electric bills. Why would GlobalNet sell out? We will see what happens on August 5th. Stay tuned.

07/21/2005 - AMAT and the others - where is the $$$?

7/21/2005 - AMAT

Every now and then I sit back and think about the days when one could make a killing in the semiconductor equipment sector. You would buy when earnings sucked and held until things just could get any better and your aunt was talking about how she just bought 75 shares of Applied Materials. Ah to be young again.

Well, I know I am not the only investor to feel this way. However, are the semi cap equip cos coming back to life or is this just another head fake? Too early to tell but I don't want to miss the ride. Wake me if I happen to fall asleep!

07/20/2005 - MSFT - Lessons Learned Good

MSFT 7/20/2005

I sold out of MSFT today. You may recall that I bought some the beginning of June. I marked the chart where I bought and sold.

My basic idea was to buy on the pull-back to the 13 week EMA. I did that OK. However, I bought when the momentum was still moving down. Big mistake. It all looks so clear today. Well, it was a lesson learned. So, buy when the weakness is over and strength is moving the stock up.

Out with a small profit. Still alive.

07/20/2005 - Ugly Americans

I just finished reading Ugly Americans last night. The book was an entertaining read, no doubt. I did feel duped though. If any of you have read Bringing Down the House, you would know whyI feel this way. Both books are written by the same author, Ben Mezrich. He basically took the same story from his first book and shifted it around a bit and came up with Ugly Americans. OK, it was entertaining, which was all I wanted. A good summer read nonetheless.

07/19/2005 - DIS is out

Well, DIS was sold this AM. The stock is showing more weakness and I can't afford to hold onto companies that could take years to come around. My strategy is to get in after weakness, ride strength and sell upon new weakness. So, that is what just happened. Small profit. Still alive.

07/18/2005 - BA is weak

BA 7/18/2005

Wow, it is July 18th already! Can you believe how fast the time goes by during the summer months? February in Boston can last about three months. July and August last about a week.

Looking at the BA chart and it does not look very strong. It is not a long and I would short it if I had more capital.

DIS showed another weak day. Lets see what happens tmrw. If there is more weakness we will have to dump this and regroup.

07/15/2005 - TGIF

The Market seems pretty happy about the news that has been released. DIS continued its move up today. I wish that HPQ came back a bit but I don't think it is going to happen.

CAFE moved up again! I still would not touch it with a ten foot cattle prod, plus buying a stock like this does not fit in my methodology.

So, we keep DIS until it tells us otherwise.

07/13/2005 - DIS

07/13/2005

DIS was ready to move up a bit. I liked the strength we saw today at the finish.

07/13/2005 - WOW look at CAFE!!!

HOST AMERICA CORP is going up up and away! As a greedy SOB I want to buy it but as a business man I have to stay away. There has to be some miscommunication here. You read about all these technologies in magazines yet this one seemed to have missed them. Something does not add up. Of course I would not be saying this if I bought at $3.

I did buy some DIS today at $25.51. Stock looks undervalued on technicals and the Company could be planning some strategical moves.

07/12/2005 - PEP revisited

7/12/2005

I was curious how some of my predictions have worked out. Here is one you may recall concerning PEP. This was a classic Bearish Divergence. The stock was moving higher but the MACD stalled out. You can see the correction that took place.

07/08/2005 - HPQ - sneak attack

HPQ 7/8/2005

I have had my eye on this stock for a while, ever since Carley was asked to leave. At least she got some experience doing a major acquisition. It will look good on her resume.

You can see that there is a long term up trend in place currently. I am reminded of Intel when I look at this chart. Intel showed some strength for a while and then went north for a few weeks. Of all the Dow stocks, this one is my favorite right now.

07/07/2005 - Hello!

Oh, it has been a long time since I last penned a posting. I can explain. I have two reasons for my hiatus. First, I am in real estate and it has been busy this summer. Also, I have not been doing much in the Market. So there you have it.

What about this housing bubble? Many people have asked me about the subject. I don't know the answer. Hey, check out this site. It is called "Condo Flip."

http://www.condoflip.com/

Condo Flip™ is an online marketplace where buyers, flippers (sellers), brokers, real estate agents, developers and builders can interact with each other and exchange preconstruction condo properties.

What about homeowners?

It seems like the real estate market is acting pretty normal. I don't see any speculation, do you?

06/17/2005 - OoOps!...

MSFT

I bought some "Big Green" the other day. I thought it was a good move. The stock was pulling back to its 13 day EMA. What went wrong. Well, I should have waited for it to start moving back up before I placed the order.

My readers know that I don't just post the good stuff. Here is a good example of ideas going the wrong way. Hey you can't win 'em all. My saving grace is that MSFT shouldn't be going out of business. I just did not catch this right.

DPZ

I am still holding onto DPZ. I think this one should creep up some more.

06/14/2005 - INTC

I was reading the Journal last week and they had a nice article how INTC's revenues are going to be up. If you looked at the chart of INTC, it was telling us something for the last couple weeks before the WSJ came out with this report. Who knows, maybe it was telling us about Apple's plans to use their chips? Anyway you slice it, the chart was telling us something before the news article came out in the WSJ. I know what you are saying, "tell me something I don't know." Put it this way - let me show you what happened after the news came out:


INTC 06/14/2005

Now, who bought the stock after the news came out? Is the run over now?

06/08/2005 - Hello / Whats' new?

Gosh, it has been awhile since I last wrote in this blog. I have just been busy with my full time job - real estate. What are your thoughts on the real estate bubble? I was reading the New York Times and the writer said that if you wanted to compare the real estate bubble to that of the NAZ, we would be at about the 3000 mark. Still some room to the upside.

I have a beautiful one Bedroom for sale in the Back Bay of Boston. Great city views and sunny! - asking $375K. Great for an investment or to live in.

5/28/2005 - MSFT is creeping - Drugs Stocks???

MSFT 5/29/2005

I was looking at some charts yesterday and noticed that MSFT is moving up quietly. It broke out of resistance last week and is above its 12 day EMA. The weekly chart shows that MSFT is trending up too. It would be nice to see MSFT come back to its 12 day EMA and be able to buy some shares. If it acts like INTC we won't have a chance to get in before the blast-off.

What the hell is it with these drug companies? Investing in these issues is like walking over an Iraqi minefield (I think, I have never been to Iraq but I saw some pics in National Geographic). Just as I was looking at Pfizer, a press release comes out about Viagra causing blindness. The stock sinks on worries of litigation and possible earnings collapse. My late uncle Alex, who was a great business man, would always invest in the top blue chip companies like a Pfizer, Intel or Coke. I wonder if he would still care to invest in big pharmaceutical companies in 2005. Drug companies are a tricky group these days. Are they worth the risk?

05/26/2005 - INTC and Pfizer - sneaky stocks

Hey, have you noticed INTC and PFE? These stocks are moving. I had my eye on them but they are getting away. Take a look at INTC's chart! I am waiting for this to come down a bit but she won't budge - just goes higher and higher. I would buy but I know the stock will come down after my order gets filled.

I am now looking at HPQ, Big Green and Mickey. I hope I don't fall asleep at the wheel on these stocks.

05/26/2005 - PEP out of gas?

PEP 05/26/2005

I was looking at the chart of PEP and it looks like the Bulls are losing steam. No doubt about it, PEP had a great run but the MACD Hist is not moving higher. Where's the muscle? I am not saying this is a short but I would be scared putting new money into this one now. Any thoughts?

05/25/2005 - The size of a milk carton

I was thinking about Michael Lewis's book, Money Ball the other day. I don't recall the words verbatim but I think it was around page 145 in the paperback when he wrote about pitching to Jason Giambi. To summarize, Jason has a weak spot in his strike zone where pitchers can get him. The spot is the size of a pint milk carton. However, if Jason can see this pitch coming he steps out of his stance and fowls off the pitch. He is still alive. If the pitchers miss this weak spot, watch out because Jason will crush the pitch!

So, my point is that when you are in the markets you are competing with the Jasons and MLB pitchers of investing. Be careful or you will get crushed! You have to be certain why you are putting on a trade and not just hoping.

5/21/2005 - PFE - INTC

It was a pretty good week for stocks last week. I hope you covered your AAPL short. I like PFE and INTC for entering long positions. I would not do so yet since these stocks are up well over their 12 day EMA.

DPZ continues to move. It is pretty over extended and will probably stall in the short-term.

5/17/2005 - GLW sold

I sold my GLW @ $14.70. Not too sure whats going on with this stock. Safe to cash out with a profit. The stock is trading at $14.50 (at its 12 day EMA). On the technical side there is a little value here but I am worried there may be more fallout.

INTC and PFE have not move down enough for me to buy. Still watching these stocks.

05/14/2005 - A couple ideas

Recently I have seen Intel and Pfizer start to move up. Now I have been faked out by Pfizer in the past but this time it looks like it showing a bit more strength. I am not doing anything right now but if these stock pull back to their 13 day EMA, I may purchase some. More later...

5/10/2005 - DPZ (more than pizza)

DPZ 5/10/2005

DPZ came out with earnings better than expected. I was reading the boards and you have people talking about the taste of pizza and how unhealthy it is. They don't see why the stock should go up. Management is the reason for DPZ's success. Like I said before, you have a big VC firm holding onto a bunch of stock. These guys play for keeps. Yeah, DPZ is not a new technology or drug. However, why would Bain Capital hold so much equity if they did not think more value could/would be created in the future? Yesterday's conference call sounded upbeat. Lets hope margins continue to rise - along with the stock price!

GLW - GLoW - worm

GLW 5/4/05

I owned GLW about two years ago. I saw that Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles was buy the debt and I figured the company was not going out of business. So I bought the equity around $5 and sold around $12. Well, I am back in again. I believe in this company's management. They are good at reinventing themselves. They are doing it again with flat screen TVs, making the glass that is. They are one of four companies that make the glass, in the world. The stock recently broke out of its trading range. The 26 week EMA is moving up. People are talking about this one and starting to buy.

05/02/2005 - AAPL again

OK, the Tiger OS is out now. Apple is upgrading their machines. The stock has not done too much. The Wall Street rule is that all stocks trade based of future expectations. So my questions deals with the future of AAPL. I am not talking about the company here. We all know the company and stock price are two different animals. They are related but rather loosely. AAPL is a great company I won't argue but can the stock go up further?

Genworth - good but sold

GNW 4/29/2005

You know, I like GNW. I wanted to see this sucker go up to $35. However, I saw something today that made me a little nervous. You see where that red circle is up there on the chart. Too choppy for me. The price is flirting with the 50 Day MA. The stock does not know what it wants to do. I would rather stand on the sidelines and wait for it to figure this out then hold on and cross my fingers. I sold, made a tiny profit.

Corning (GLW) - sold off huge today but came back to finish about flat for the day. That shows some pretty good strenth. I expect this stock to creep up over the next couple months. The stock had done nada for a long time but finally broke out of a trading range. Espect good things as a result.

PIR & HAWK updates - going down down down

PIR

I remember talking about PIR earlier and things are pretty much turning out as I expected. Actually, I am a little surprised that PIR has not done better given that Warren Buffett's company owns some of the equity. Well, maybe I am right about the Target theory (you can buy the same crap in Target... at a lower price.)



HAWK

Remember, I spoke about the bearish divergence? The stock is sinking, which is not surprising. The stock just did not have the power to move it forward. The institutions came in but even they could not move this puppy up. It was good that I sold...

I am short on apples!!!

AAPL 4/27/2005

A good buddy of mine just bought an iPod. He is pretty tech savvy but not one to buy into fads. So when I saw him go out and buy one of these memory machines, I knew that the iPod must be "mainstream." So, what does Apple have up its sleeve now? Some kind of new computer called the Tiger? I actually don't know and you probably are correct in telling me to shut-up. However, do you remember when AAPL was a computer company (only), before the iPod? Do you remember what the stock was trading at? $13-14 a share. So, now that the iPod run is over, AAPL is back to computers. I wonder where the stock price will go?

I shorted this at $36.55. So, I don't think this sucker is going up.

4/22/2005 - AIG yes... NO. not yet.

AIG 4/22/05 daily


4/22/05 AIG weekly

I was looking at AIG the other day and it looked pretty interesting. The daily chart looks like a bulling divergence. The stock was making recent new lows but the MACD Hist was above the 0 line. However, the weekly chart did not show that bullish divergence. It shows a much different story. The MACD hist was making a new low! I would not buy now. I was close though.

Any thoughts?

04/14/2005 - HAWK - update

04/14/2005 - HAWK

You remember that I had bought HAWK and then sold the stock. Looks like the Bearish Divergence that I mentioned is starting to play out now. This stock was too risky to hold based on its technicals. Better to sell and preserve your capital.

04/14/2005 - AAPL - update

AAPL 4/14/2005

You may recall that I had a broker call me trying to sell me AAPL reverse convertible bonds. I politely declined. I just could not see AAPL continuing its climb that it has had over the last couple years. The broker even said that the retailers are expecting iPod to sell briskly through the summer. What? Was I born yesterday? If the retailers are expecting it, I am sure Wall Street is too. Nice try.

You could see this stock cracking from a mile away. Today, the stock trades below its 50 MA. Sure the stock may bounce up a little but I think the street is waiting for AAPL's next rabbit trick. I know I am...

04/14/2005 - Pier 1 - update

Pier 1 Imports - 4/14/2005

You may have remembered that I wrote about (PIR) a while back. I actually owned it because I saw that Berkshire owned some. I then sold the stock for a couple reasons. First, buying a stock because someone else has is not smart. Also, the stock was in a trading range for a while. So, I sold. I am looking at a current chart and it looks like I made a good choice. PIR has had a hard time convincing investors that their new strategy is going to work. As I said before, can't you buy the same crap in Target?

04/07/2005 - DPZ > > > ME hungry!

DPZ is looking like it is making a move to another upward trend. The stock was over the $19. mark today, an area where it was getting a lot of resistance. Bain Capital still holding a lot of stock. I can't imagine Bain wanting to lose money on this (or anything else they do). They want to see this go up. I can't think of too many other coattails with similar success stories as Bain Capital. I like the stock now.

04/06/2005 - What's up with this?

ford 40605

Can someone tell me what the excitement is with this stock. From what I can tell, this company make carrying cases for cell phones. I know the company is making money and has a PE of 34. Carrying cases?

04/06/2005 - Bearish Divergence = Sell

hawk 40605

This was a company that I thought had some good potential. The chart is breaking down. I only noticed a Bearish Divergence today. This stock was losing steam while going up. Risky to hold this long now.

04/05/2005 - My Complaints Today

I don't know what is going on with HAWK. Looking at the chart, it does not look too strong. Tomorrow will be interesting. If the stock shows more weakness, it may be time to dump it and wait for it to start showing strength.

DPZ is inching up - slowly. I would buy this stock if it had more volume to it. I just don't see institutions buying yet and they move stocks.

GNW is moving up slowly. Lets be patient and hold on to this one.

04/01/2005 - Good Day in the Oil Patch

Hello,

Well, HAWK moved up $1.05 to $11.53. Goldman came out saying oil could hit $105. Also, HAWK is making money right now. You saw in my earlier chart how it looked like the institutions were buying. Lets hope that continues!

GNW was up $0.09 today to $27.61.

DPZ, was down a bit. How is Bain Capital going to dump its shares with such low volume. Once the volume comes, this stock may move fast. I don't see it yet...

3/29/2005 - Dr. Alex Elder Webnar - Good Time!

DJIA 3/29/2005

I participated in a webnar with Dr. Alexander Elder today. I enjoyed it very much. Actually, this was my first webnar ever. The above chart shows the weekly graph of the DJIA, showing a Bearish Divergence! Needless to say, Dr. Elder is bearish now. I believe John Murphy is bearish too. I guess they are seeing the same things.

Here is how Elder views markets now:
Oil - Bullish long-term (start buying oil if it hits $50. on the next dip)
Interest Rates - going up
US Dollar - going up
Euro - going down
Stock Market - going down
housing stocks - short

Books Elder recommended:
Elder's Books
Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes


I picked up some Genworth (GNW) at $26.78. I would like to see the stock get up to its 20 day EMA. The stock still has some room to move.

03/25/2005 - Genworth

GNW 3/25/2005

Genworth, GE spinoff of their insurance group. They did a secondary offering at $26.50 last week.

03/22/2005 - Pizza anyone?

03/22/2005 - DPZ

Just an idea. Dominos Pizza is forming a cup-handle pattern. Bain Capital has a bunch of shares that they are going to have to unload. The stock does not have big volume, which is a problem. I can't see Bain wanting to hold on to this stock Long-term.

03/18/2005 - PIR ??? What's the rush?

03/18/2005 - PIR

Pier 1 (PIR) is getting a lot of press these days. I don't know if you have noticed. The NYT had an article about how PIR pulled their ad campaign last season and now they are revamping the stores to make them less cluttered. A new ad campaign will be introduced too.

Looks like the institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The stock is down over the last couple of days. I would not take this stock seriously until it starts trading over $19.97. It could make a quick move if it does hit that area.

It is a make or break time for PIR. They have had more excuses for their bad perfomance over the last year. I would think that management's credibility is starting to wear and tire the analysts and investors. Maybe the business model does not work anymore. Did anyone think of that? I mean, can't you buy the same crap at a Target or Wal-Mart? - and for less?

03/16/2005 - MIT discussion group

Good morning. Last week I told you that I was going to a discussion over at MIT concerning technical analysis. Specifically, Joseph E. Majocha was going to speak about his website Selective Chartists.

In general I thought Joe had some good stuff to say. I give him credit for getting up in front of, what I thought were, some pretty confident and cocky people. There was one older man named Herb who was basically giving Joe a tough time. One time he asked Joe where Martha Stewart would have sold. Joe did not answer but I could not restrain myself. I chirped out, "the top!"

The one thing that I got from this meeting was that there is no magic bullet. We all have the same tools. We may interpret information differently, which is what separates those who make money from those who don't.

The other point that Joe said, but went unnoticed, was that he cut his losses quickly. Preserve your capital and get another chance to make money. Let's face, not all trades will be winners.

03/15/2005 - HAWK

Petrohawk Energy Corp. 3/15/2005

This company looks interesting. It reminds me of a company you would see in IBD where there is no volume for a point in time and then the institutions discover it. It looks like there are some buyser here. I also see the 27% of the company is still owned by insiders. Finished up today.

03/12/2005 - The Coming Week

I am excited for next Tuesday (the 15th). MIT is hosting a discussion on technical analysis. I will let you know how it goes.

I have recently sold EPD and FCL. I was very happy with the results. FCL sold with a 25.5% gain and EPD with a 20% gain. Both stocks were held less than a year. Energy picks are getting difficult. Many issues have moved up quite a bit over the last year. You don't want to get caught playing the "greater fool" game. I don't anyway.

I have scaled back on my trades. GM catches my eye. I would not want to catch a falling knife but this stock has potential to start moving up again.

03/10/2005 - EPD sold for 25.5% gain

OK, you guessed by the title of today's posting that I sold EPD at $26.50. I bought the stock at $20.29, 278 days ago. I am pleased with the return. The stock seems to have stalled. They keep fooling around with their capital structure which worries me. They may know what they are doing but I don't.

03/09/2005 - iPod Stock

I received a call the other day from an investment advisor pitching me reverse convertible bonds for Apple Computer. Basically, I would receive a 12% coupon and get my principle back if AAPL stock stays above a certain price. If the price falls however, I receive a stated number of shares. That is where I could get killed. I knew I did not like the idea but I said I would call the guy back later.

I called the guy back and told him I didn't like the idea. I mean AAPL has been going up for the last couple years. The only way I see this stock going up or even keeping its value is if the company comes out with a great new product. I am surprised that the investment advisor would try to pitch such a crazy idea. I could be wrong on this one but I am willing to take that chance. I could have used his advice to buy the stock when it was at $12!

03/07/2005 - The Rector of Justin

I try to read other books than those about finance. I am just finishing up The Rector of Justin, a great book by Louis Auchincloss. Mr. Auchincloss is a self acclaimed "hack" as a lawyer but a fabulous writer. The Rector of Justin is about an all boys prep school, thirty miles west of Boston. I think the book is loosely based on the Groton School in Groton Mass and the Rev. Peabody. The book takes place in the 1940s. Great book. One quote from the book that I thought was funny was:

"Yes, greatness of the private school, Brian, is not that it produces geniuses - they grow anyway, and can't be made - but that it can sometimes turn a third-rate student into a second-rate one."

I find it funny because I went to an all boys private school (that competed with Groton in athletics) and I find the quote to be pretty much true. Ha hah hah!

03/04/2005 - FCL Sold

I sold Foundation Coal today at $26.81. I bought this stock at $22.37 for a 20% increase over a 78 day holding period. I like it.

03/03/2005 - Oil and Coal

Hello and thank you for joining me again. It has been a while since I last updated my blog. The reason is the confluence of being away and also not really having anything germane to say about the market.

OK, February was a pretty good month for me but not for the S&P 500 Index Fund (SPY). The SPY returned -0.20%. I am happy to say that I was up about 12% for the month of February. I attribute that gain all to energy stocks in my portfolio. Exxon, Petrochina, Foundation Coal and Enterprise Products have all performed well in February. These companies are in natural gas, oil and coal businesses. As I said earlier, I am not going to toy around too much with these holding now.

I still have some cash to invest so I will be looking for some ideas.

Glad to be back!

02/21/2005 - Happy President's Day!

You know I often get bogged down with little items about the Market and lose sight of the big picture. Since the beginning of the month, my portfolio has done well. It is all attributed to energy stocks. Exxon and Petrochina have done very well. You may have read the Exxon is now larger than GE in terms of market capitalization. I own two other energy companies that are performing just OK. Enterprise Products and Foundation Coal have done well, but not as good as the oil cos. I am not going to fiddle with this part of my portfolio.

I do have some cash from my sale of NSL and EAD. These funds are interest rate sensitive and took a turn for the worst last week. I was able to dump both funds with a profit plus dividends they paid. It was not a huge killing but not bad for a couple weeks work. I will be on the hunt for new ideas.

Friday's News.....

With respect to the January PPI report, its core component (excludes food and energy), which showed a surprising 0.8% increase versus the consensus estimate that called for a more modest 0.2% increase...

The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note jumped 8 basis points to 4.26% and the yield on the 30-yr bond rose 7 basis points to 4.65%...

02/15/2005 - Back from VT

Hello and thank you for joining me again. I have been away for a few days. I good friend of mine had his bachelor party up at Killington Vermont. We had a grand old time. I think I am still feeling the effects.

I sold my NSL at $9.69. I am pleased. I was getting a dividend yield of 6% and I also received 5% capital appreciation, which would have been 43% annualized.

Still holding on to EAD. Yield 10%.

Two charts that I have been looking at but probably won't buy because they have gotten away from me are P&G and EBAY. The downtrend on these two charts shows a strong reversal. Too bad I was away.

02/16/2005 - Sold EAD too!

Yup sold EAD today at $15.29. I am please with the sale. Made a short term gain. The suprise of the day was Foundation Coal (FCL). The earned $.15 a share last qtr. The stock was up about $1.34 today. Lets hope this catches some attention from the institutions.

02/08/2005 - Not Much New - What?

I have been on the sidelines lately. I still hold NSL and EAD, both have performed well for me. I am in no hurry to allocate capital now.

John Murphy had some interesting things to say today about interest rates. I was also reading something about interest rates yesterday and the author said that long-term rates are coming down because the Fed is raising short-term rates and thus mitigating inflation long-term.

Every recession in the last forty years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.

Bond yields fell sharply last Friday on a weak jobs report. Fourth quarter GDP came in way below expectations and was the weakest of the year. That's also pushed yields lower. The fact that bond prices have done better than stocks so far this year also suggests a more defensive attitude on the part of investors. Then there's the impact of falling bond yields on the yield curve.

Energy stocks remain the market's strongest sector -- while technology is the weakest. That's a bad combination for the stock market. The fact that consumer staples and utilities have been market leaders early in the new year (along with energy) is a sign that the economic cycle could be peaking. Then there's the January Barometer which gave a negative vote for the market this year. A little known aspect of January's performance is that sector leaders during January often lead for the entire year. And sector laggards often lag for the balance of the year. That's another vote for defensive market sectors -- especially energy. If rising energy shares are hinting at higher oil prices, that's not going to be good for the rest of the market or the economy. Maybe that's why bond yields are dropping.

The above statements are John Murphy's from Stockcharts.com.

02/04/2005 - Update

Sorry, I have not been around. I actually have a day job in Real Estate too. So I have been busy with that.

I am pleased so far with my move into the Evergreen Income Adv. The fund is up to $15.76 from $15.20, where I bought. Plus the 11% div yield. Nuveen Sr Incm Fd is doing well too. I am happy with my energy stuff, EPD and FCL. So, I do not have any trade ideas yet. I am still reframing that part of my portfolio.

News today:
- January non-farm payrolls rose 146K, weaker than the 200K economists expected and below an average gain of 177K over the four prior months...

- crude oil prices ($46.48/bbl +$0.03)

02/01/2005 - Notes

The market was up! Yippie! Let's not get carried away.

First, I would like to say that I am please with the EVERGREEN INCOME ADV so far. The fund is up and yields around 11%. I like those numbers. NUVEEN SR INCM FD is up too from where I bought and yields me 6%. As you can see I have dug my heals in somewhat. I was not clicking with the market when the new year began, so I retreated and reframed the plan.

01/31/2005 - Up Today

Hey, the market started off pretty good for the week. Up 62 pts or so. The market reporters said that the market was up because of some good news out on the wire. I guess I am surprised that the market did not do better today. We need help from the institutions if this market is gonna do anything.

- A better than expected 60-75% Iraqi voter turnout that passed without a considerable increase in violence

- OPEC's decision to maintain its current rate of oil production at 27 mln barrels a day

- Homebuilding had been weak following Dec New Home Sales that came in slightly below forecasts (1.09 mln units versus consensus of 1.2 mln),

- Jan Chicago PMI, which showed Midwest manufacturing activity expanded for the 21st consecutive month with a better than expected read of 62.4 (consensus 59.8)

The market needs a lot more good news for it to push forward. Remember, back in the day when a company could say that they did not lose as much as they thought and the stock went up about 40%. How about when an Internet company said they were going to have an increase in "page impressions" or "eyeball traffic" of 25% and the stock went up 50%. Not anymore. Investors are not easily convinced anymore.

01/28/2005 - More of the same - partie deux

Well, the market ended down. Surprised? I'm not. What happened in the news? Not enough.

- the Q4 employment cost index, which rose a smaller 0.7% (consensus +0.8%), the weakest overall rise since Q2 1999...

- Commerce Dept. showed 3.1% annual growth in advance Q4 GDP, less than the expected 3.5% growth rate, the data still suggest overall GDP growth in 2004 was the most robust since 1999 and still slightly above the 10-year trend...

- The GDP deflator (inflation) rose at a modest 2.0% annual rate, basically in line with economist's forecast of 2.1%...

You know, I have adjusted my game plan. It took me a few losses to get it through my thick skull that most equities are lethal right now. I moved some money into a fixed income mutual fund called EVERGREEN INCOME ADV (AMEX:EAD). Evergreen Income Advantage Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in below investment-grade (high yield) debt securities, loans and preferred stocks, under normal market conditions. These securities are rated Ba or lower by Moody's Investors Service, Inc. or BB or lower by Standard & Poor's Ratings Group, or are unrated securities of comparable quality as determined by the fund's investment advisor.

The yield on the fund is 11%. I bought at $15.20. Here again, like the Nuveen Senior Income Fund, I don't expect too much capital appreciation or depreciation. My take is that it is not safe to be trafficking in equities now. It is important to keep a close eye on your capital...

01/27/2005 - Today's Muse

A whole lot of nothing going on... I know, I have been kind of chasing ideas to invest in. It's not working. My last idea was Boeing, although it is a good company I shouldn't have touched it. I just don't see anything out there. I know, I know, invest in something with energy in it. At this point I feel that I am chasing energy. I put money in Foundation Coal (FCL) and Enterprise Products a while back. Those stocks are doing well. Still waiting for FCL to pick up some speed. I just don't have much conviction. We are back in the "old new economy," which equals the "old economy." Guard your money or go broke. The playground is just about empty. Time to go back to class and learn.

- An early surge in oil prices closer to $50/bbl, amid concerns of violence ahead of Sunday's Iraqi elections and uncertainty regarding OPEC's upcoming output decision

- December durable goods rose 0.6%, close to forecasts of +0.7%, November's figure was upwardly revised from 1.4% to 1.8% and orders, excluding transportation, were up 2.1%, indicating continued strength in underlying business investment... Weekly jobless claims coming in a bit lower than expected at 325K, marking the second consecutive week below 330K, has essentially erased concerns caused by the seasonally-influenced surge in initial benefits over the holidays and further reflected a respectable employment situation...

01/26/2005 - Moneyball

I just finished Moneyball last night. I enjoyed the book but I also like the way Michael Lewis writes too. I don't think I would have enjoyed the book as much as I did if Michael Lewis had not written the book. The book shows how to look at baseball through a spreadsheet. A game that was based on personalities, homeruns, and strikeouts is now sliced and diced down to a plethora of different metrics. What is the price of a "homerun hitter?" What would you pay for a "base stealer?" Billy Beane and the Oakland A's know. Now the Red Sox and the Blue Jays are learning. Interesting book. Fast read.

Nothing of GREAT importance has come out today on the news front. I am guessing that retailers will have a weak first qtr because of the bad weather in the Northeast. The bad weather will be what they blame it on, anyway.

OK, I know the market is up today. It was up yesterday too. I just don't feel it. I don't have much confidence in the market right now. Something is not right. I am standing still.

1/25/2005 - Notes

- an unexpected rise in January consumer confidence to 103.4 (consensus 101.3) did little to move stocks notably

- Existing home sales for December checked in at a 6.69 mln annual rate, slightly worse than the 6.80 mln

01/24/2005 - Diggin' Out

Boy, what a snow storm we had this weekend! I was diggin' out all morning. And the Patriiots won again this weekend! A great game! Next stop - Jacksonville!

"While lackluster action on the part of buyers so far in 2005 is rather typical during the early part of earnings season, as the market usually rallies only after worries over individual stocks producing negative surprises subside, investors appear to be seeking bargains in a market that has so far overstated worries about decelerating earnings growth... " briefing.com

Still, looking at charts and sitting still.

01/21/2005 - Today's Notes

The market continues to digest all the news that is coming out. I am basically staying on the sidelines now. BA will be jettisoned soon as a way to raise cash if need be. Many of the stocks in the Dow are in a downtrend sans AIG, DIS, MO, PG, XOM.

- The University of Michigan has released a preliminary read on January consumer sentiment of 95.8, slightly less than expectations of 97.5

PM Notes
Another down day. I am wondering what it will take to move the market higher? Earnings have been coming in OK. Nothing great. Nothing bad. Could we be at the end of a bull market? Is the market figuring that Q2 is going to disappoint? Looking at the Dow stocks, they are going down. It is a little strange that even the big pharmaceuticals are going down. I thought these stocks were safe havens in times of trouble.

Energy has done well. Maybe energy stocks are the new pharmaceuticals? People have figured out that there is only so much oil in the ground. There is a new country emerging, called China that I guess wants some of this energy too. The perception of energy has change and investors want it. Do people still need their heart medication? What about Viagra? My guess is that the generic drug manufactures have changed the playing field a bit. There are now companies that can produce a cheaper drug... but there are no companies that can produce cheaper oil/gas/diesel. I guess that is the difference.

Enough of my soap box drivel. I sold BA. Time to raise cash. Time to sit still.

Have a great weekend!

01/20/2005 - ho hum...

The market is just churning like cud in a cow's mouth. Earnings are just "ho hum." Trader Mike had the right idea by waiting until earnings season is over before he did anything. I myself am thinking that I have to re-frame my trading approach. The market has changed and my trading approach is not efficient anymore. This is a great example why you should not buy a "trading system." You have to be able to change when the market changes.

Yes, I am long BA but I will sell at $51.88 or $50.60.

PM Notes
Yup - another dull day on the street. Now is the time to really pay attention. When, things get "dull," keep looking. So what happened today?

- Dec leading indicators, which matched forecasts of 0.2%
- Jan Philadelphia Fed index, which came in at 13.2 (consensus 25.0), showing a slower pace of manufacturing expansion than in 2004 but still exhibiting respectable growth...

Nuveen Senior Income Fund (NSL) - which I bought a couple months back has moved up a little. This fund offers a nice div yield and the capital appreciation has been a bonus. NSL was purchased at $9.22 and trades at $9.63 today. I will continue holding it until I need to raise cash.

01/19/2005 - Today's Notes

The market seems to be digesting the batch of earnings reports OK. Today we have some key numbers coming out, which appear somewhat benign.

- Dec CPI just checked in at -0.1% (consensus 0.0%) (due in large part to a 1.8% decline in energy prices)
- Core CPI came in at +0.2% (consensus +0.2%)
- Weekly jobless claims fell 48K to 319K (consensus 345K)

BA is down a bit today. I am still long. Stop at $49.94.

PM Notes
More of the same. The market really does not know what it wants to do. I thought BA was going to close higher today given its end of the day strength. Seems once the Beige Book was released, stocks headed south again. It is somewhat disheartening to be in markets like this. The key is survival. You don't want to swing for the fences. Be patient and wait for the pitch to come to you. I am long BA. Once we get past earnings season, the market should be less temperamental.

- Evidence that the overall trend in housing remains flat, another bullish signal erased by the bears, was witnessed when housing starts jumped 11% to 2.0 mln (consensus 1.91 mln) and building permits came in at 2.0 mln (consensus 1.99 mln)...

01/18/2005 - WOW! It is cold here!

1/18/2005

Good morning to all! I hope you all had a nice long weekend. I know some of you worked too. It is quite cold here in Boston and the Northeast. This bodes well for energy.

- the January NY Empire State index, which fell to 20.08 from a revised 27.07 read in December... While this month's figure was weaker than economists' forecasts of 25.0, the data are still suggestive of an expanding manufacturing sector as any reading over zero reflects growth...

BA, EPD and FCL are all up this AM. I am watching BA closely. In hindsite, I think I should have waited for BA to trend rather than range. Take a look at the BA chart Vs. the EPD chart. Look at the difference! I want EPD stocks. Who wouldn't? Although, I am sure BA won't be going out of business soon, it takes more energy and concentration to make money in a BA situation than an EPD. I know, I know - easier said than done...

PM Notes

The market had a nice day. BA was up $0.97 today.

- Positive remarks from Lehman Brothers regarding increased deliveries of commercial aircraft have helped Boeing.

I continue being long BA.


"The most dangerous moment comes with victory." Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 - 1821)

01/16/2005 - Go Patriots!!!

Lets Go Pats!

01/14/2005 - I continue to be cautious...

The market opened higher today - BA is down. You probably read the news on BA.
- announcing plans to recognize Q4 (Dec) pre-tax charges totaling about $615 mln
I am still long BA. I must say I am surprised by BA's action.

I was thumbing through the January issue of Stocks & Commodities and read an interesting interview with Don Miller. He said something we all know but sometimes forget.

"People need to understand that the market is imperfect: You have all these trading segments trading all different strategies and different time frames, so every single pattern is going to look different. And you won't always be on your game.... You've got to understand that."

What are we looking at today?
- Dec PPI checked in at -0.7% (consensus -0.2%) while core PPI rose +0.1 (consensus +0.2%)
With the December core rate coming in a bit better than anticipated, however, it appears inflation so far remains contained
- November Business Inventories came in at 1.0% (consensus +0.6%)
- Capacity Utilization checked in at 79.2% (consensus 78.9%), not yet suggestive of inflation concerns but beginning to grab attention, as 80% remains the hypothetical mark where inflation picks up...

I continue to be cautious...

Market Closed...

We go into the long- weekend on an "up note."

"With inflation in check and good underlying growth indicated by stronger than expected economic data, concerns of an oversold market were removed as broad-based buying interest pushed virtually every sector into positive territory..." - Briefing.com

It was nice to see the market come back from this morning's lows. It was also nice to see BA pick its head up a little. I particularly liked that the Bulls were able to bring the stock up from its daily lows and close +$0.28 for the day. I am long BA with a stop at $49.94.

I am happy with energy too. EPD and FCL continue to move up. FCL has not been as easy to watch but I do think coal will be strong now that oil seems to be off its lows.

I hope all have a nice weekend...

01/13/2005 - Boeing

Hello to all. The market has been pretty choppy. As I said earlier, I have taken a cautionary approach to the market for now. That being said, I did buy some Boeing (BA) this morning at a price of $51.65 per share. The chart on BA looks rather bullish. I know the stock hit a 52-week high not too long ago, but this stock looks like there is some good buying behind it. I have a stop at $49.94 in case of any downdraft. Otherwise, I am keeping a low profile in the market. That's all for now.

Early Afternoon Update
BA has experience some selling today. I am still long the stock. I feel that much of the selling is due to yesterday's gain. I am curious to see what happens in late day trading. If the stock continues to be weak in the late afternoon, I will assume that we are not working off yesterday's rally anymore. There could be something more serious at hand.

Markets Closed...
Ouch! BA did not show much strength today. I was pretty confident that BA had the strength to move up. I did not expect the stock to reach a new high but maybe up to $52.50 or so. I am still long on the stock.

The Market just seems to be reacting to bad news after bad news. Here are some examples of news items that came out today:

- a GM warning
- a Treasury Dept. ruling that companies won't be allowed to repurchase stock or pay dividends with repatriated foreign earnings
- a 3.5% surge in crude oil ($48.04/bbl +$1.67)
- Verizon Communications (VZ 37.00 -1.23), which was downgraded by both CSFB and Robert W. Baird
- An FDA warning about Pfizer's (PFE 25.37 -0.66) controversial painkiller ads

I am not much of a forecaster. Maybe I got caught in a death trap today? You know, the market shows strenth but it is really bleeding like hell. You buy on strength only to get whipsawed. Today, BA showed huge selling in the late stage on the market. Not good...

John Murphy's Market Message Jan 13, 2005 had some interesting things to say too.

"It looks to me like the downside correction is oil is over and that it's headed higher again. Energy stocks, which are today's strongest group again, are leading the commodity higher."

"Oil service stocks remain the strongest part of the energy patch."

The NYSE Tick was +77. That is pretty much a nonevent. Can't say that I am too excited about the market right now. I await tomorrow's news and will make and needed adjustments.

bonne nuit

01/11/2005 - December Wrap Up

December was an anemic month for my portfolio. I was up about 0.43%, which is pretty poor actually. At least I know who to blame for the pisspoor performance, me. The S&P Spiders (SPY) were up about 2.29% (does not include dividends reinvested, that would really skew the returns. I don't have the dividends coming in like the S&P 500. I feel this is a closer measure of performance.).

I lost some money on the OSIP trade. I still laugh at that one. Otherwise, I have been just plugging along.

Since I began "keeping score" back in July, I am up 7.03% between the 7/31 - 12/31/2004 time period. The SPY was up 9.56% for the same time period. If I did not enjoy the stock market so much I would probably put my account into an idex fund or something of that ilk. I do believe I will catch returns. You can't give up.

01/10/2005 - AM Notes -first SEC "crackdown"

Good Morning Vietnam! I did a little reading this weekend but not as much as I had hoped. I did look at Barron's. I am amazed by the mentioning of the blogs in Barron's over the past weeks. The community of investing blogs is rather small but I have a feeling that this number will increase exponentially. I also look forward to the first SEC "crackdown" because some nincompoop who works for a major investment house decided to share ideas about his trading account. I can see the headline now: "SEC Probes Investing Blogs."

I have pulled in my horns a bit over the last week. I am waiting and posturing for my next move. I don't plan on putting my money in an Index fund. I remember reading a passage in Running Money By Andy Kessler.

"Those 'families with substantial assets' had wealth, but it wasn't static. Every generation it shrank unless they chased returns. No rest for the weary. But they don't like risk. Well, too bad. I think what I learned is that wealth comes not just from taking risk but from constantly taking risks."

I will continued to "chase returns!" I just hope that I catch them. ;)

Cheers,
Jeff

01/07/2005 - P.M. Notes

Good evening to all. I was just looking at some charts that make up the DJIA and I am concerned. Just about every chart I looked at shows weakness. The Bears have arrived. I am staying on the sidelines until I see a little energy come back into the Market. Two stocks that stick out are the "Win-Tel" brothers. Microsoft and Intel charts look downright anemic! Have these two growth companies of the 1980's and 1990's become stalwarts? Can we expect 3% dividend yields from these guys in the not too distance future?

To me it looks like every stock in the DJIA is rolling over. I am not savvy enough to make money in a bad market. You saw what I did with J.Jill. My best move right now is to go back to my den and wait this one out.

Cheers,
Jeff

01/07/2005 - A.M. Notes

OK, J.Jill did not work out. I did sell the stock this AM. I am feeling a bit discouraged but I must remember that this is not the end by any means. I am alive and well to fight another day. It is time for me to pull back and regroup. I think I got a little sloppy on J.Jill. They say that the major difference between a professional and amateur trader is how they handle their losses. The pros take very small losses. You can't escape losses but you keep them small.

I am sitting tight for now.

GRACE W R CO. is a no go for today.

01/06/2005 - P.M. Notes

The bears won with J.Jill today. I did not sell even though my stop was at $14.76. I watched the stock pretty closely and actually thought it may close unchanged today. Tomorrow, I am not going to give this stock anymore room. I am just curious (curiosity killed the cat) to see if there is any strength on the stock tomorrow. It took a good drubbing today.

I am looking at stock for tmrw, GRACE W R CO NEW (NYSE:GRA). Stock has no upcoming events trades at $13.00. Lets see what happens in tmrws open.

01/06/2005 J.Jill Chart

We are in the midst of a Bull vs. Bear fight concerning J.Jill. News came out early this AM that JILL had some trouble in their last quarter. The stock was down to about $13.82 in pre-market trading. Right now it is down about 18 cents from yesterday's close.

The indicators that I am looking at look OK, except one, which I point out above.

My feeling is that by the end of trading today, we will know the short-term fate of JILL.

Stay tuned...

Fed Minutes Suggest It Won't Pause (WSJ)

In case you did not notice, the title of my headline was plagiarized from the Wall Street Journal. Why did I do this? Two reasons:

1) I wanted to remind myself not to simply parrot what other news sources are saying. A blog is suppose to be original. It is suppose to add value by sharing personal experiences. If you find that you are simply reading news that is being passed on through this blog, write me a nasty email and let me know.

2) The second reason has to do with perception. The Market moves on perception. Once something is in writing, it is old news. When we trade, we are trading perceptions. We are trading people, as stated in the book, Tools and Tactics for the Master DayTrader: Battle-Tested Techniques for Day, Swing, and Position Traders by Oliver Velez, Greg Capra. Traders and investors are perceiving what may happen by headlines. It seems scary. Putting your money into a perception. Capitalism at its best!

How is J.Jill doing? It is at about $15.06. I still have my stop at $14.76. Retailers are a funny group. Basically what's in fashion goes up and the opposite is true too. It's that simple. I don't trust J.Jill. I am ready to sell anytime.

01/04/2005 - Just a small downdraft...

What a day on the Street! Many portfolios got trimmed today. J.Jill, the stock I bought today was down to $15.05 the last time I checked. Energy was down too! All US Industry Indices were down. It is true that the Bull Market is getting "long in the tooth." (side note: When horses were sold, the teeth were checked to tell how old they were. As they aged, their gums receded and the teeth appeared to be longer.) As you know I don't forecast. I listen. Right now I am listening to stocks moving south. I won't hesitate to sell some holdings if the Market continues to breakdown. Lets hope the bloodletting stops tomorrow.

On a side note, I would like to mention that any "trader" is doing themselves a disservice if they are judging each trade as if it is their last. Back to my football analogies. The game is not decided by one play. The game is made of many plays by each team. Just because one team throws and interception does not mean the game is over.

So, be sure to base your trading performance on intervals of ten trades. Only then can you see if there is a true flaw in your system. Only then can you see a big picture.

01/04/2005 - J.Jill looks good...

Hello to all. I hope you had a nice New Years Eve! I have been looking at a couple ideas and have come across one, which I am taking some action. J.Jill, the stock has been over-sold and looks like a nice swing trade. I am in at $15.30. I am taking this pitch. I know retailers are of an insidious ilk but I like the odds on this one. I have a stop at $14.76.