Where are we in the current economic cycle?

Steel and oil stocks are the leaders in this current market. Can we assume that we are at a certain point in the current economic expansion because these two industries are waxing? It is more complicated than that. Oil is being impacted by the conflict in the Middle East (and Venezuela perhaps). China is also creating a large demand for oil, which is a somewhat new factor. Oil producing countries are always turning their spigots off and on. They manually create the supply, demand is going up though. So I think we should expect to see higher oil prices in the future. If oil hits $60. A barrel, the US could go into recession.

Steel stocks. Why are steel stocks leading the market? The domestic steel market is being affected by six factors.

1. An exponential increase in steel production in.... You guessed it. China.
2. The overall improvement in the US economy and in manufacturing.
3. Raw materials in steelmaking. Coal, coke, scrap, iron ore and certain alloys. Raw material costs have skyrocketed to the point where the steel producers must increase base prices.
4. Coal supply has being impacted by two fires. One in West Virginia and one in China.
5. The energy costs that it takes to make steel have increased.
6. Shipping costs have increased.