SAY (NYSE) update

SAY (NYSE) 9/16/2004

Hello friends, as usual it has been a while since I last published. I have been looking at SAY and this stock is in a confirmed uptrend which started around Sept 1. We have been waiting for this to happen for quite sometime. Lets review some of the technical indicators:

RSI (14) is at 77.0. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points.

ADX (14) is at 39.1. In looking at the chart you can see that the SAY is in a trend and the trend is STRONG.

ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100. Even though the scale is from 0 to 100, readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend and high readings, above 40, indicate a strong trend. The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend. A reading above 40 can indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend. +DI measures the force of the up moves and -DI measures the force of the down moves over a set period.

ADX can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and/or moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend could be developing.

As a simple rule of thumb, "When the +DI line is above the -DI line, all Parabolic sell signals can be ignored."

OK, SAY is in a confirmed strong uptrend. Thus, I feel good about putting on a Parabolic SAR stop. The stop is place at $21.55. 9/16/2004 This stop will be adjusted each day.

Parabolic SAR stop at $22.08. 9/17/2004