Sunday, January 14, 2007

Alan Farley - Pattern Cycles

I have been looking at Alan Farley's Book, The Master Swing Trader, and trying to glean some information about trading (successfully!). Anyway, Alan starts out by explaining pattern cycles.

  • Pattern Cycles recognize that markets travel through repeated bull and bear conditions in all time frames.
  • As ranges contract, so does volatility. Like a coiled spring, markets approach neutral points from which momentum reawakens to trigger directional price movement. This area between the end of an inactive period and the start of a new surge marks a high-reward empty zone (EZ) for those who can find it.
  • Price bar range (distance between high and low) tends to narrow as markets approach stability.
  • Once located, Place an execution order on both sides of of the EZ and enter a position in whatever direction the market breaks out.

Sounds pretty easy but there has to be more to this than meets the eye. I can't wait to find out! I just look at a bunch of charts and the EZ in not easy to see. It rarely will jump out at you. What I did notice is that you do see waves of motion in prices. The waves in a strong trend seem to offer the best opportunity. Look at the charts below. I picked the out of the S&P 500. The first few I looked at.

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